DEBTOR NATION

RUMBLINGS FROM THE PIT

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Japan trade deficit soars 69.7% in April to ¥879.9 billion, from April a year ago, the tenth months in a row of trade deficits, the worst series since 1980, and the worst April ever. For each of the last three Aprils, the deficit was worse than in the prior one; same for March, February, and January. The trend is relentlessly awful. Abenomics is deepening the hole, but it’s digging at a faster rate. The weaker yen nudged up exports 3.8%, but imports jumped 9.4%. Don’t blame oil: imported crude oil volume dropped 2.2%. Exports to China stagnated, but imports jumped 13.3%; the deficit skyrocketed 60.2%. However, exports to the US rose 14.8% while imports stagnated; the trade surplus leaped 32.5%. Japan exports twice as much to the US as it imports. Perhaps someone in the White House will someday get Japan to open up its auto market. The trade balance with Western Europe flipped from a surplus a year ago to a deficit; exports fell 3.5% and imports rose 11.4%. Abenomics and the money-printing binge have heated up consumption of imported luxury goods and other items that can’t be produced in Japan. For the rest, Abenomics appears to be a giant miscalculation. The graph for the years 2011, 2012, and 2013 shows the worsening trend:

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

“Apple does not use tax gimmicks,” Apple wrote without twitching an eyebrow apparently, in response to a Senate investigation that showed that it sheltered at least $74 billion in profits from US taxes between 2009 and 2012 by using a "complex web" of offshore mailbox companies. One such Irish subsidiary with no employees and no physical existence made $30 billion in profits and didn't pay a dime to a single government anywhere, not even Ireland. Legal, and proof that the US corporate tax dodge code is a scam that bestows a tax-free environment and other welfare handouts to certain companies, while raking less fortunate and often smaller companies over the coals.

Impact of cheap natural gas in the US: the construction of 97 chemical and plastics plants that use natural gas as feedstock has been announced, with investments over $71 billion, sez the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Among them, in Texas alone: Dow Chemical’s plan to plow $4 billion into ethylene crackers and Exxon Mobil’s plan for an ethylene cracker and two polyethylene plants. Others lining up: Chevron Phillips Chemical, LyondellBasell, and Mitsui & Co. Via OilPrice.com. These companies vigorously oppose the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as they fear it would raise prices in the US to the levels natural gas trades for on the world markets. Their pleas fell on deaf ears, a dilemma and opportunity I wrote about.... The Quiet Triumph Of Oil And Gas In Obama’s Policies

Japanese Government Bonds: "Absolutely no guarantee" that Japanese investors will continue to buy them, warned an advisory panel to Finance Minister Taro Aso. Investors who lose confidence in the JGB can easily invest their funds overseas, the report nervously pointed out. Some have already made that shift. Hence the recent spike in yields, despite the Bank of Japan, which is mopping up around 70% of the flood of new bonds that the deficit spending of Abenomics generates. Investors only have to pick up the remaining 30%, but they appear to be reluctant to do so. Why is anyone outside of a government controlled institution still buying this crap?

Finding excuses: Japan supermarket sales dropped 1.9% in April, on a comparable-store basis, from April 2012, with food sales down 0.4% and clothing down 8.8%. Blamed was the "unseasonably cold weather." When sales edged up in February and March, the credit went to Abenomics, not the weather or some other silly thing. A broader media trend: when economic data points are positive, Abenomics gets the credit; when they’re negative, the weather and other reasons are dragged into the scenery, sometimes by their hair.

Mystery pollution in China: unknown foul-smelling goo emerges from cracks in the street, becomes huge, finally gets cleaned up ... and remains unknown.

 

Monday, May 20, 2013

“Every 10 years or so, banks make some horrible mistake and it usually starts with easy money,” said Mike Pinto, vice-chairman of M&T Bank, a regional US bank. “We are worried about the competitive atmosphere. It creates the temptation to do silly things.” He was talking about the credit bubble. US banks made $1.55 trillion in business loans through April, up 10% from last year; banks are falling all over each other trying to goose their profits by making risky loans. US corporations have also sold a record amount of bonds at record low yields and with historically low protections for investors. So now banks are loading up their balance sheets with business loans that will come to haunt them. But no problem. It will just be part of the next financial crisis that will give the eager Fed another opportunity to hand trillions to TBTF bankers to bail them out.

UK wages propaganda war against Scotland, which will hold an inconvenient independence referendum in September 2014. A new report by the UK Treasury, the third in the series, claims that the Scottish banking sector – composed of two large banks, Bank of Scotland and Royal Bank of Scotland, plus smaller ones – would put an independent Scotland at risk. Its assets would be 1250% of Scottish GDP, while the Cypriot banking sector, which brought down Cyprus, was 700% of GDP, the report said ominously. For the UK overall, banking assets are 492% of GDP, also very high. But the UK has “credibility” in the markets to manage that risk, something Scotland would lack. A "feeble attempt to undermine confidence in Scotland's ability to be a successful independent country," retorted Scotland's Finance Secretary John Swinney. "The Treasury, true to form, will outline what is in its own best interests, not what is in the best economic interests of the people of Scotland." He called these assertions misleading; "In terms of share of GDP, in fact, financial services are actually smaller for Scotland at 8.3% than the UK at 9.6%. So if the argument is about risk, then the risk is with the UK," he said.

Now Germany has a real reason to exit the euro: Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein wants it to stay! A bad sign. In an interview with the Welt, he said Germany had profited from the euro the most – from his point of view, “Germany” is “Germany Inc.” But real wages for working Germans have declined since the introduction of the euro, and workers have had a hard time, while wages in Greece, Spain, and other countries have shot up. Though German workers now have jobs, unlike people in Spain and Greece, they earn less than they used to in real terms. For that privilege, German taxpayers (not Germany Inc.) must pay a price, he said, namely bailing out banks and speculators who hold the crappy debt of periphery countries. He predicted utter economic mayhem for Germany if it left the euro. No, German taxpayers will have to bail out weaker countries, he said. And he raved about the "political project" behind the euro, the ultimately total integration of Europe (and of course, he defended TBTF banks, which were more secure, he said, than smaller ones). My question: is Goldman now seriously long the euro?

 

Weekend, May 18 - 19, 2013

Sales skid at S&P 500 companies: 458 companies of the 500 in the index have reported their Q1 results so far: earnings were up a measly 3.4% year-over-year, but sales fell 0.2%. Not exactly the foundation for the gigantic undying stock market rally that has plowed through whatever economic and corporate bad news with nary a twitch. When will this separation of reality from stock prices end? Someday, one way or the other! He who can pinpoint that day will make a lot of money.

Central bank success story: The global market for luxury goods grew 38.6% in three years. From $200 billion in 2009, luxury goods sales jumped 13% in 2010, 11% in 2011, and 10% in 2012, to end up at $275 billion. Despite the Eurozone debt crisis and austerity, despite the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in 2011... no matter what happened in those three years, luxury goods boomed, sez the the just released "Worldwide Luxury Markets Monitor," by Bain & Company for Fondazione Altagamma (PDF). “Absolute luxury items (high-end products with no logo, highest quality materials, and exquisite craftsmanship) lead the way,” the report reassured us, but there were some losers, including “watch consumption” which crashed in China. The report confirmed what we’ve seen everywhere: when central banks hand out trillions to their cronies, it doesn’t do much for the real economy as a whole, nor for employment, but it does one heck of a job at the very top of the pyramid.

"Threat of Default": US hits debt limit on Saturday, but by using a slew of shuffle maneuvers, shell games, tricks, and devices, the US won't actually run out of money until "after Labor Day," Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew told Congress in a letter. In his previous statement, the US would be "okay until Labor Day." Today, he was more frantic. He begged Congress to get its act together and do something "sooner rather than later" to “remove the threat of default.” In its infinite wisdom, Congress had suspended the debt limit till May 18, rather than dealing with it. The debt, though still over the limit, declined in April and early May; tax extractions were fattened by asset bubbles. But since May 10, the debt has once again been rising.

 

Friday, May 17, 2013

US Consumers haven’t felt this good since July 2007, just before all heck broke loose. An "encouraging sign," Reuters sez. For short sellers? The preliminary results of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index jumped to 83.7 in May from 76.4 in April. Big part of the reason: households in the upper third of the income bracket felt flush from the ballooning stock market – the wealth effect. The Fed giveth.... They were able to brush off the payroll tax increase, which Wal-Mart shoppers, as we’ve seen, had a harder time brushing off. The Consumer Expectations index rose to 74.8 from 67.8. And the Current Economic Conditions index leaped to 97.5 from 89.9, the highest since October 2007, a month before the stock markets began to swoon. Impeccable timing, the hallmark of consumers.

Car sales in the EU crept up 1.7% in April, from a horrible April last year. The fact that the parade of ever worsening numbers has finally stopped, at least for a moment, was greeted with a huge sigh of relief. The details of the report aren’t that rosy: sales in the UK, now the second largest market after Germany, jumped 14.8%. Without the UK, sales for the rest of the EU actually dropped 0.46%. It wasn't exactly a smooth trend across the member states: Greece finally seems to have hit bottom, and sales increased 20.9%; in Denmark, they jumped 30.7% and in Finland 142.6%; but they crashed 26% in the Netherlands and 51.9% in Cyprus; they rose 3.8% in Germany but dropped 5.3% in France.

Deafening US media hype: Japan Core Machinery Orders jumped 14.2% in March, seasonally adjusted, from February. The eternal money-printing and fiscal-stimulus apologists dragged it out as proof that Abenomics is working massively. Alas, these are highly volatile big-ticket items, though “core” orders exclude container ships, nuclear reactors, etc., which are even more volatile. To iron out the volatility, the Cabinet Office also offers quarterly numbers. Soooo, core orders in the first quarter of 2013 were actually 4.8% lower than in the first quarter of 2012, when Noda was prime minister. Kampai!

The Japanese take care of their college grads: 93.9% of all those who graduated on March 31, the end of the academic year, had jobs by April 1, the beginning of the business year. This was the second year in a row that the percentage increased, so it’s NOT related to Abenomics, please! College recruitment, like so many things in Japan, is a highly structured process with the idea to get pretty much everyone squared away before the end of the academic year. But those who miss this entry into Japan Inc. have the greatest difficulty getting through the door later. The system is unforgiving punitive to those who don’t toe the line.

About that secret inflation in Argentina: famously, no one is allowed to accurately track or discuss inflation, but all the whisper numbers floating around peg it at over 20% annually. Now confirmation has come from official sources: wage negotiations between unions and the government of President Cristina Fernández Kirchner. Unions are her base. In fact, she personally met with the leaders of six unions that represent about 2 million workers, or 40% of all workers covered by wage negotiations, and made a deal, similar to the deals she’d made with Railway and Bus Drivers’ unions. The agreed-upon wage increases this year to keep the purchasing power of her voters intact? The closest estimate to official CPI that Argentina has? 24%!

 

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Last time French-made cars were sold is the US? 1980? Long time ago. But... French-made models of the Toyota Yaris are coming to the US, Canada, and Mexico, apparently to keep the plant in Onnaing, near Valenciennes, busy. Car sales in Europe have been catastrophic, and plant shutdowns and layoffs are hard to do, especially in France where even thinking about it causes a huge political ruckus. In 2012, 182,841 Yaris were sold in Europe, accounting for 22% of Toyota's total European sales - a highly successful model at the low end of the lineup. North America will get US versions, not EU versions. So no diesels.

Plunging price of gasoline shaves 0.4% from Consumer Price Index in April. Total energy prices dropped 4.3%, with gasoline down 8.1%. We’ll remember those days fondly because that cheap gasoline is now history; prices have been climbing in May! Food prices rose 0.2%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%. For the 12-month period, CPI is up 1.1% and core CPI 1.7%. The Fed might complain that this is below target; but it’s still inflation, and it still whittles down the value of your and my dollars, and everything denominated in them, and it’s still higher than the interest that banks pay on most deposits and CDs, though it’s better than 4.3%, as we had some months in 2011.

Another blow to US manufacturing: Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey – for manufacturing in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware – dropped into the negative, to -5.2 in May, from 1.3 in April (below zero = decline). The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing survey, reported yesterday (below), had also pointed at a contraction. Ominous: new orders dropped to -7.9, the worst since June last year, from -1 in April; the Workweek Index dropped to -12.4, and the Employment Index dropped to -8.7. Manufacturing is only a small part of the US economy, and this region is a small part of the US, so we’re not going to panic just yet...

US Housing Bubble confirmed: Heard an ad on the radio on how to get rich quick by flipping houses – and we’ll show you how. It conveniently offered an 800-number. Something or other was free.... but keep your credit card handy. These kinds of things usually appear late in a bubble.

Death penalty for financial fraud in China. A court in Wenzhou slapped a local, 39-year-old gal, former general manager of Wenzhou Xinfu Investment Consulting Co., with the maximum penalty available, death, for having illegally raised funds for investments starting in 2007. Everything worked fine until October 2011, when her scheme collapsed and she ended up defaulting on a 428 million yuan loan ($69.6 million). Leaves open the question if they’d slap the same penalty on TBTF bank CEOs every time their banks need a bailout. A bit draconian maybe, but something the US might want to consider as well, after not having prosecuted anyone responsible for the financial crisis and for the Fed’s bailouts that followed, though they did hound, as in China, small-scale crooks like Bernie Madoff.

Bad loans at Chinese commercial banks swelled by 6.8% in the first quarter, to 526.5 billion yuan ($85.6 billion), the sixth consecutive quarter of increases, raising the non-performing loan ratio to 0.96%. And NPLs are expected to rise further. One of the many elements in a boundless debt-fueled scheme that will eventually, like the micro-case above, unravel.

The Japanese Diet rubber-stamped the ¥92.6 trillion ($926 billion) budget for fiscal 2013, which started April 1. A breath-taking ¥43 trillion ($425 billion) will have to be borrowed to make ends meet - that's 46.4% of the total outlays! But no problem. Abenomics will get Japan out of its fiscal quagmire, one way or the other, by printing money. Government spending on public works – welfare spending for Japan Inc. – will rise to ¥5.3 trillion. In a show of rare fiscal discipline, welfare spending for the poor will be cut by ¥67 billion. Priorities of Abenomics are becoming clear.

Japanese GDP growth less than a year ago! The economy grew 0.9% in the first quarter 2013 from Q4 last year, or a 3.5% annual rate. Private demand was up some, with investment in housing being fairly strong, but corporate investment lackluster. Public demand – government spending and investment, including boondoggles – jumped, as promised by Abenomics. Exports rose, and so did imports, but not as much. All seasonally adjusted. Great? Give credit to Abenomics for that 0.9% growth in GDP? Because it was the fastest growth since... oops, well, since the first quarter of 2012, when the economy grew 1.3%. Abenomics can't even keep up with Noda's maligned era.

 

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Megabanks "are NOT too big to jail," claimed Attorney General Eric Holder today in a heroic about-face at a House Judiciary hearing, after he'd explained to the Senate Judiciary Committee in early March why exactly they were indeed too big to jail. The Justice Department has not prosecuted any megabanks despite their shenanigans leading up to the Financial Crisis and continuing to this day. A debacle I wrote about.... 'Regulatory Capture' Emasculated The Regulators Of Megabanks.

French purchasing power plunges 1.5% per capita, and 0.9% for all households together in 2012 (difference due to population growth), the worst performance since 1984. Combination of: disposable income creeping up only 0.9%, and prices rising 1.9%. Ah yes, the many benefits of "moderate" or even "below-target" inflation.

Tough day for US manufacturing: industrial production dropped 0.5% in April, after increasing in February and March; year-over-year, it's up only 1.9%. Within it, manufacturing fell 0.4%; fingers point at motor vehicles and parts, down 1.3%. Capacity utilization fell 0.5% to 77.8%, and is 2.4 percentage points below long-term average. Add to that: the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey for May dipped into the red (-1.43, from 3.05 in April). Employment sub-indices were mixed, with number of employees up slightly, but hours worked down sharply. Darkest cloud: new orders were negative. Executive optimism for the next six months declined, second month in a row. Not an exemplary picture of a growing economy.

"My question is, who is going to jail?" wondered House Speaker John Boehner about the IRS scandal. So why didn't he and other Republicans ask that question after the financial crisis, the largest scandal in the US ever?

Swooning energy prices, particularly gasoline, pushed down wholesale prices by 0.7% in April, seasonally adjusted. Food prices also dropped, a godsend for those of us who like to eat, with veggies and meat down the most. Without food and energy, which are highly volatile, the core Producer Price Index rose 0.1%. For the 12-month period, the unadjusted PPI is up a scant 0.6%. If they could just keep it that way!

Warning shot: Russian car sales plunged 8% in April. For the year, they are now 2% below the same period last year, a record year during which sales had jumped 11% from 2011. The good times appear to be over. Is the EU malaise heading east?

Europe stuck in recession: the Eurozone economy shrank 0.2% in the first quarter, from Q4, the sixth quarter of recession in a row, another glorious record. The 27-nation EU contracted 0.1%. Year over year, they’re down 1.0% and 0.7% respectively. Germany's economy inched up 0.1% in Q1, after having plunged 0.7% in Q4, thus barely avoiding the red stamp of recession. Both quarters combined, Germany is in the hole. The lousy performance in both quarters surprisingly surprised pundits. France is formally in a recession; its economy contracted 0.2% in Q1, third contraction in four quarters. Italy and Spain both shriveled 0.5%. Unperturbed, German stocks, while down a smidgen for the day so far, are still above their prior all-time intra-day high of July 2007. This will be seen as the greatest accomplishment of the central bank money-printing binge: separating (at least temporarily) stock markets from reality and allowing them to float in a dream world.

China's pile of foreign exchange grew by 294 billion yuan to 27.363 trillion yuan ($4.41 trillion) in April, according to the People's Bank of China, the fifth month in a row of increases. For the first four months of 2013, the monthly influx averaged 400 billion yuan, nine times the average in 2012. Earlier this month, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the top forex regulator, had threatened to crack down on foreign money flooding the country. China is where the hot money goes – on the bet that the yuan will continue to rise against the dollar which, through the arduous and heroic efforts of the Fed, will continue to lose value.

Nikkei jumps 2.29%, to 15,096, highest since December 28, 2007. If it keeps going like this, it will be above 40,000 soon. This thing has become a joke – even more so than the US stock markets. Japanese government bonds continue their descent, pushing yields up, with the 10-year JGB hitting 0.90% but then settled down at 0.85%. The yen skidded.

 

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Ex-leaders of consumer electronics: Sharp's huge loss is a sign of how Japanese powerhouses have lost the edge to Korean, US, and Chinese rivals. A doozy: ¥545 billion ($5.3 billion) in red ink, a record in its storied century-long history. A top exec reshuffle has been announced, but it won't fix the real issue that is bedeviling Sharp and other Japanese consumer electronics companies, once world leaders, now not even also-rans. Abenomics won't be able to cure that either. This isn't an issue of costs and exchange rates, but of innovation, products, and now increasingly brand (they squandered it).

China's white paper on human rights, helpfully issued in English so that foreigners like me can get their brains washed, starts out promisingly: "Since the arrival of the 21st century, the Chinese people have been making constant efforts in advancing human rights protection along the path of building socialism with Chinese characteristics under the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese government." Further into it, the paper clarifies priorities: "China has a population of over 1.3 billion. For such a populous country, it would be impossible to protect the people's rights and interests without first developing the economy to feed and clothe the people." Money before rights. But it also points out how the government has become much more transparent in many ways, which few people will dispute (text in full).

Inflation hits Japan: wholesale prices rose for 5th month in a row in April, by 0.3% from March, with the index at 101.4 (2010 prices = 100). Electricity, gas, water, lumber, and wood products jumped over 3%. Some of it was due to the weakening yen that made imported fuels and raw materials more expensive. How exactly higher prices would cure Japan’s economic ills remains a mystery, though it will give a stylish haircut to all those owning Japanese Government Bonds....

Japanese Government Bonds skid once again: yields rose, for the 10-year JGB to 0.85%, from 0.79% yesterday, from 0.69% on Friday, and from 0.315% on April 5, the day they went bonkers. While yields are still ultra-low, the rise has been relentless, not at all what the BOJ wants – and now there's also volatility, rare sight in the JGB market. Japanese institutions and individuals are buying foreign bonds with higher yields to diversify out of the yen that has been doomed by Abenomics to decline. If this turns into a massive dumping of yen, if the BOJ cannot keep it under control, the selloff might turn into a rout, and the BOJ and government-controlled institutions will be the only ones left buying. In sympathy, mortgage rates are creeping up, as are bank loans. The opposite of what Abenomics wants to accomplish. Free money is suddenly becoming more expensive. 

Click for Older Rumblings....

VIDEOS

Wolf Richter on Max Keiser's "On The Edge" 
"The Pauperization of America"

Wolf Richter on the Keiser Report
"Where the Money Goes to Die"

Clarke and Dawe: European Debt Crisis
Two favorite Australian Comedians

Clarke and Dawe: Quantitative Easing
Big industrial-strength printers, all facing the window

The Fastest Drive Ever Through San Francisco
Don't try to do this yourself
 

humanERROR - by "Frying Dutchman"
Powerful, lyrical appeal to the Japanese. Slams nuke industry, MSM, bureaucrats, and politicians.

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Sunday
Oct212012

What’s Going on in CRM?

Contributed by Doug Hornig, Casey Research.

In Mike Judge's wicked 1999 satire of corporate culture, Office Space, there's a delightful character named Milton. Poor Milton. He's all but invisible. No one likes him, no one talks to him, and coworkers are forever stealing his stapler. Management doesn't notice him enough to fire him. Instead, Milton is shunted from desk to desk, each time losing more of that precious commodity denoted by the film's title, until he finally winds up alone in the basement, where he plots the delicious revenge he'll take on the company.

In times past, customer relations staffs were where the Miltons of the world most likely landed. If you couldn't do anything else, you could probably listen to phone complaints all day. No one wanted to, but somebody had to do it. And so they did, until they went mad from boredom or frustration.

That was then. Today, there's a new shine on customer relations departments, and the field has earned itself a fresh, glossy title and a widely recognized abbreviation: customer relations management, or CRM. And it's become an integral part of the SaaS (software as a service) industry.

The Rear-View Mirror

But first turn back the clock to the 1970s, before the real blossoming of the computer revolution. In that era, most companies – especially those in the Fortune 500 – paid little attention to customers, who were largely forgotten after they'd ordered something. Big company execs, knowing they had enormous resources at their disposal, along with a major market presence, had the attitude that they could always replace customers, if necessary.

Then came the dawn of the Information Age, with evermore powerful business computers and personal machines that began to proliferate in buyer's homes. Now people could make more informed decisions about whom they wanted to buy from. Globalization eased the task of switching suppliers if they were unsatisfied with someone's customer service. At the same time, businesses had rapidly increasing computing power at their fingertips.

The confluence of these two factors led directly to the beginnings of CRM in the 1980s.

At first, with the rise of sophisticated database creation and maintenance technology, it was referred to as "database marketing." Databases were employed to create focus groups to communicate with customers, particularly the most valued. Problem was, data was gathered primarily through repetitive and inefficient surveys, and in the end surveys don't yield a great deal of useful information.

There were processing and analysis hurdles, as well. No task-specific software yet existed that could take all the data being amassed and spit something actionable out the other end. Eventually, companies came to realize that what they needed was to compile simple information they could make plans around: what the customer was purchasing, in what quantity, how often, how much was being spent, and what was done with the products purchased.

Sounds pretty basic today, but it wasn't until the '90s that the phrase "customer relationship management" was coined, and more comprehensive versions of the software were written. Everything that could be automated, was.

CRM, however, is not just about technology. As it has evolved, it has also become more complex, more of a two-way street. While gathering information for the purpose of decision-making remained primary in order to drive increasing profits, companies also put some effort into building strong, enduring relationships with their clients in order to build loyalty. Many began giving back to favored customers, in the form of gifts, discounts, perks, and sometimes even cash.

Customer support, integrated into a CRM system, became more solid, even as machines were taking over much of the heavy lifting. Management began to treat the old saw, "the customer is always right," with greater respect. That was more difficult before the computer revolution. Now it's a cinch. When customers complain, their grievances can be handled quickly and efficiently, on an individual basis. And the mistakes that caused the problem can immediately be rooted out so that they don't happen again.

Sales, once made, can be logged into the database and tracked. They can be cross-referenced to any number of other areas, and analysis can proceed from different angles. Customers' interests and buying patterns can be identified. Sales managers can have direct access to information that allows personalization of the buyer's experience. Electronic sifting of sales data can help drive product development in the best possible direction. And customer follow-ups can be generated automatically, according to any criteria desired.

Designing a CRM System

In order to achieve these goals, it's important for the architecture of a CRM system to be broken down into three broad categories:

  • the collaborative, which deals with communications between companies and their clients
  • the operational, which deals with the automation of as many processes as possible
  • and the analytical, which analyzes customer information and uses it for business intelligence purposes

Collaborative CRM involves all the interactions a company makes with its customers – either face to face or through electronic means such as telephone and Internet. Here, the personal touch is very important. Customers must be provided not only with goods and services, but with whatever assistance and information they may require. Satisfied customers become repeat customers, and CRM can use multiple technologies to bring that about.

Operational CRM deals with the automation of business processes such as enterprise marketing, customer service, and sales-force matters. All data relating to customer interactions is stored in a database, allowing for staff to pull information specific to that customer as needed.

Within Operational CRM:

  • Enterprise Marketing Automation gives the company quick and easy access to aspects of the business climate, data on competitors, industry trends, and other critical input. That access yields strategies a company can employ to guide its overall marketing plan.
  • Customer Service and Support Automation takes care of such things as returns and customer complaints.
  • Sales Force Automation (SFA) covers demographics, special customer needs, and accounting management, with access to information made available not only to salespersons but, in appropriate instances, to clients as well.

Finally, there is Analytical CRM, which deals with analysis of all data input that bears upon customer service capabilities. Some examples would be: cross-selling products to customers; finding ways to retain customers who might be switching to competitors; and providing important information to customers without delays. Analytical CRM is also a tool for fraud detection and/or prevention, and for pattern recognition with regard to sales, inventory, and profits. It can be applied to product development and risk management, areas in which it needs to be particularly dynamic, so that the business plan can respond in a timely manner to any winds of change out in the real world.

When these are all integrated into a cohesive whole, then the company can realize substantial benefits in a competitive environment. But managing such an extensive suite of procedures is a daunting task for many companies to try to accomplish in-house. It means adding considerable (and expensive) expertise. A bespectacled software engineer lurking around every water cooler.

On the other hand, what if you could simply purchase what you needed, in the form of software as a service?

It was a good question, and people on both the user and provider ends of things began asking it. The result: creation of an instant niche for companies with CRM software products that were more cost effective than hired IT guns, and that were applicable across a wide spectrum of the business world.

CRM as a Service (SaaS)

First to jump into this space in a big way was Siebel Systems, founded by Thomas Siebel and Patricia House in 1993.

Siebel began by offering only sales force automation software, but with the explosive growth in demand for CRM through the '90s, it quickly expanded to include marketing and customer service applications. By 1999, it was by far the dominant player and was named the fastest-growing company in the United States in that year by Fortune magazine.

Along the way, Siebel pursued a strategy of forming strategic alliances and making acquisitions to provide e-business solutions for CRM and related areas; as of late 2000 the company had more than 700 alliance partners.

The company went public in 1996, and in 2000 its annual revenues broke through the $1 billion mark. A year later that had doubled, and in 2002 Siebel peaked, grabbing a 45% market share. Today, Siebel is a brand name owned by Oracle, which bought out the company in September of 2005 for $5.8 billion. Although its market share has slipped considerably, it is still a major player.

Next to throw its hat into the ring, in 1998, was the giant German multinational software company SAP. It was followed by Salesforce in 1999 and Microsoft's Dynamics CRM in 2002. Together with Oracle, these companies make up the Big Four of CRM vendors, collectively holding about 60% of market share.

Obviously, three of the four are large, diversified companies, for which CRM represents only a fraction of their revenue stream. Salesforce is the upstart. It's a company whose NYSE ticker symbol is, fittingly, CRM. That's what it's always specialized in (even though of late it has been moving aggressively into the social-networking arena).

The Rise of Salesforce

Salesforce established its position by targeting smaller to mid-sized companies, an area largely neglected by its bigger rivals – primarily because the high cost of the CRM solutions of the day was affordable only by big-budget outfits. It also pioneered the delivery of subscription-based CRM software online. Put the two together, and you have one of the biggest corporate success stories of the new century.

And no wonder. According to its website, "With Salesforce, every step of a sale – from phone calls and emails to collaboration with colleagues – is tracked in one place, so reps stay on top of deals and build stronger relationships with their customers. The average Salesforce.com customer experiences: +29% increase in sales; +34% increase in sales productivity; +42% increase in forecast accuracy."

Salesforce currently has more than 82,000 customers and over 2 million subscribers. It's international – with regional headquarters in Switzerland, Singapore, and Tokyo – and its software supports 16 different languages. It is annually recognized as one of Fortune's 100 best companies to work for, with a ranking that vaulted from 52nd in 2011 to 27th in 2012.

The company is working hard to utilize social-networking websites and to lock up a dominant role in mobile CRM. It's a leader of the migration to the Cloud, as can be seen in the way its CRM suite is broken down:

  • The Service Cloud enables companies to create and track cases coming in from every channel, and automatically route and escalate what's important. For their part, customers have the ability to track their own cases 24 hours a day.
  • The Sales Cloud provides sales representatives with a complete customer profile and account history, allows the user to manage marketing campaign spending and performance across a variety of channels from a single application, and tracks all opportunity-related data including milestones, decision makers, customer communications, and any other information unique to the company's sales process.
  • The Data Cloud leverages crowdsourcing via its member community to create a highly accurate worldwide business contact list. Sales leads, changes of contact information, and organizational profiles can be viewed within the Salesforce application, all generated from up-to-the-minute data created by real business interactions.
  • The Collaboration Cloud utilizes the type of features embraced by Facebook and Twitter users, and with it employees can tap into social, mobile, and real-time technology to collaborate on documents, business processes, projects, and application data. Components include profiles, status updates, and real-time feeds.
  • The Custom Cloud is a platform that allows external developers to create add-on applications that integrate into the main Salesforce application and that are hosted on Salesforce's infrastructure.

For its efforts, Salesforce has been amply rewarded. It's jumped from nothing to over $2 billion in revenues in 13 years. Its CAGR for the past five years has been 22.2%. It led the field in market share addition in 2010-'11, with a 2.8% increase. Since it IPOed at $11 in June of 2004, its share price has rocketed to around $145 today, a rise of better than 1,200%. And along the way, it steadily buttressed itself (and dampened competition) through strategic acquisitions, gobbling up 24 other companies between 2006 and 2012.

Though nothing in this fast-evolving space is certain, of course, the consensus is that Salesforce will continue to eat market share. And it is expanding in all the right ways. According to leading technology analysis firm Gartner, the SaaS-based CRM sales the company specializes in are expected to leap to $6.4 billion in 2015, from $4.5 billion this year. That's the biggest slice of the SaaS pie, as can be seen in this table from Gartner:

At the same time, clients will be integrating social media into their customer service centers; while only 1% of companies adopting CRM are now involved with Facebook, Twitter, and the like, by 2017 that number will reach 25%, Gartner believes.

The Tentacles' Reach

CRM is continually pushing into new industries, as well. Telecommunications leads the customer list at the moment, with the energy/utilities and financial-services sectors close behind. But health care and public services are coming on strong, and are expected to take over the top spots relatively soon.

There is also plenty of room to broaden the reach of CRM services. Whereas CRM systems originated as uncoordinated, separate department servers, the key word today is "integration." And there seems to be no end to the number of corporate elements that can be drawn together, as you can see from this near-octopus that depicts the CRM of the future:

The goal – always – is to put customers first, and to offer them a buying experience that is seamless from beginning to end. The vending company's website becomes the portal through which customers can browse inventory to find what they're looking for, place orders, track order status, and provide feedback about the results. On its end, the company can gather data about customers, personalize its response to them, and set itself up to generate repeat interactions. All of this allows the vendor to transform itself from a purely static entity to one that is much more dynamic.

The Magic Quadrants

With Oracle and SAP losing market share, Salesforce and Microsoft seem poised to benefit the most. But what about other potential competitors, those that make up the 40% not controlled by the Big Four? Might some serious challengers arise?

They might – at Casey Extraordinary Technology, we're always on the lookout for them.

Each quarter, Gartner publishes its famed Magic Quadrants, in which it divides technology firms in a given field into four categories – Visionaries, Niche Players, Challengers, and Leaders – and places them inside a square partitioned into boxes. A company's position in the Magic Quadrant depends upon how Gartner sees it in relation to its peers.

There is no Magic Quadrant for CRM as a general designation; rather, there are separate charts for different aspects of the business. Thus we have this one for MultiChannel CRM Lead Management:

And quite a different one for Sales Force Automation:

There are others as well, but these two identify some of the up-and-comers in the business.

According to CMSWire, lead management involves "processes [that] take in unqualified leads from sources including Web registration, direct mail, digital and email marketing, social networks and tradeshows. CRM lead management solutions automate and optimize how those outputs are then qualified, scored, nurtured, augmented and prioritized for delivery to direct and indirect sales personnel and organizations."

In this category we find companies like top-ranked Eloqua, which Gartner cites for its ability to support complex, multichannel lead-management processes and easy-to-use user interface, and which grew revenues by 39% last year. Another is Marketo, which specializes in B2B (business-to-business) transactions, and which experienced 130% growth.

On the SFA side, SugarCRM had a big year in 2011, landing a major contract with IBM that brought aboard 75,000 users. The company is interesting in that its CRM software and associated community are open source, which enables collaborative, customer-driven enhancements. The open-source community develops and refines new capabilities, which SugarCRM then incorporates into subsequent commercial releases of its software.

The Future

Whither from here for CRM? There are probably as many answers to that question as there are those giving them. But a few themes emerge.

One of these is the integration of social media with corporate CRM. It's even got its own buzz term, "SocCRM." And one logical extension of SocCRM is what is generally referred to as "value co-creation."

Through the use of social media, companies have the ability to interact with the customer base as never before. There is a ton of information floating around out there, and it can be tapped into. Now, even major decision making can be based on real-time feedback from users. Design, marketing of product, pre- and post-purchase service – all can become true collaborative efforts, the goal being to create a win-win scenario for both the vendor and the customer. Some startups are even creating social networks before they bring their product to market, in order to find out what it is that the market really wants.

Value co-creation – both in the beginning and as an ongoing part of the toolkit – can be extremely advantageous for the company because it is, in essence, outsourcing much of the heavy lifting of product development, and getting it done for free.

With regard to its Dynamics CRM software, Microsoft put out a white paper in which it suggested uses that its product might be applied to. Among others noted by Microsoft:

  • Manage online class registration automatically. In addition to automating the registration process, one could track student activity like attendance, grades, certifications, and course evaluations, as well as track and report on marketing activities, including social media, to measure the success of campaigns.
  • Medical-product manufacturers and distributors can automatically notify product owners of a warning or recall; answer product questions with confidence using a CRM-based knowledgebase; and suggest additional products that could enrich a customer's life.
  • Help municipalities respond to citizen requests more effectively.
  • Ditch the paper order form. Work alongside customers to configure an order and send the quote immediately from a tablet device.
  • Track customer goods in transit with map integration, in response to customers' expectations for knowing where their product is in the supply chain once they have ordered it.
  • Compile a comprehensive view of lapsed customers and generate automated lists of customers who might be re-attracted based on purchase history.
  • In a phone conversation with a clients or prospects, employ guided dialogues to prompt follow-up questions based on answers and build decision tree interviews.
  • Fine-tune customer contests to meet fan interests.
  • Keep track of where backup paperwork specific to each interaction is located.

But in the end, how do you get sales staff, who may be very set in their ways, to actually use this stuff?

That's the question posed by Dr. Michael Wu, principal analytics scientist and blogger for Lithium.com. Wu writes that "one of the many challenges facing Social CRM will be adoption. In fact, traditional enterprise software (e.g., sales force automation) often experiences a very steep learning curve and is not well adopted within the enterprise. Even if it is adopted, people often hate to use it. Employees only use it because their job requires it."

His simple solution: "gamify" CRM software.

That is, people are more apt to learn new skills, and to warm to new technologies, if they're presented as a game. "Social gaming dynamics," he says, "can foster team work, collaboration, and even a healthy level of competition within your organization. The result is ultimately a huge boost in productivity …

"So if you ever get involved in [CRM] software design, make sure it's entertaining! Never underestimate the power of fun."

Sounds like an idea whose time has come.

Casey Extraordinary Technology is another idea whose time has come. Learn why from CET Senior Editor Alex Daley.

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Reader Comments (1)

This is an excellent overview of "MultiChannel CRM Lead Management" product suppliers and encapsulates how someone selling these products might view the market as a whole.

This is clearly a huge marketplace and by this technology, by its nature, is quickly becoming the beating heart of modern enterprise management. How do they reduce costs/increase revenues/improve the end-user experience to justify their adoption?

Would you be willing to do a follow up from the end-user(s) perspectives? How cost effective are these products? How do real customers managed by these software systems view their customer experience?

You hint at some of the problems of adoption when you mention gamification--I would love to hear more!
October 21, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterDrew Freyman

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