DEBTOR NATION

RUMBLINGS FROM THE PIT

Friday, May 24, 2013

Austrian Megabank CEO bites the dust: Raiffeisen Bank International CEO Herbert Stepic quit on Friday after it emerged that the bank is investigating two trusts of which he's the "beneficial owner" with mailbox companies in Hong Kong and the British Virgin Islands that he used for property deals in Singapore in 2006 and 2008. He sez that the two weren’t offshore vehicles and that this money had been properly taxed in Austria. SCMP checked out Takego, the Hong Kong mailbox company and found that it “was owned last year by a Hong Kong firm, Lintel Securities, wholly owned by David Chong Kok Kong, the chairman of Portcullis Trustnet, a financial services firm based in Singapore. Portcullis was a major source of information on secretive offshore companies that was provided to the United States-based International Consortium of Investigative Journalists in one of the biggest financial leaks in history.” Yup, things bubble up. He was already under investigation from the Austrian financial regulator involving a real estate deal in Serbia, but somehow that file was closed last week.

Fiat Inc.? CEO Sergio Marchionne denies that "the item" is on his "agenda for now," but rumors have been swirling that he is going to move Fiat SpA from Italy to the US, or at least its headquarters. Fiat and Chrysler would need “cultural integration based on mutual respect,” he said while in Detroit where he hangs a lot. A decision would “be governed by a variety of justifications including access to capital markets and the ability to finance the house,” he said. But... “There’s been no decision — it’s not even on my digestible list of things to do for the week.” The Obama administration, which had bailed Chrysler out of bankruptcy, handed 20% of the company to Fiat in 2009. More followed. Now Fiat’s total stake has grown to 58.5%, and he wants it to get the rest. Then there'd be a huge IPO that would make Wall Street rich. Not sure why the White House gave Chrysler away for a pittance. Meanwhile, Fiat is fighting the UAW health care trust fund in court over the value of its stake. Back home, Marchionne is under heavy pressure from the Italian government to keep Fiat in Italy.

Alarm bell: US margin debt at all-time record high in April: investors borrowed $384.4 billion in their brokerage accounts against their stocks, up 1.3% from March, and up 29% from last year. The previous record was set in June 2007 at $381.4 billion, even as the financial crisis was seeping through cracks in the veneer. High margin debt, a sign of euphoria and blindness to risk, is a leading indicator of a market selloff ... which will trigger margin calls and forced selling that drives down markets even further. Been through that many times. In 2007, the swoon started in November; and of course in 1999.... Nothing new here. History in this respect is doomed to repeat itself.

Mercury in Chinese medicine stirred up debate in China after Hong Kong's Health Department forced Beijing Tong Ren Tang Group Co., one of the largest producers and retailers of Chinese medicine, to recall a batch of its stuff due to excess levels of mercury. Now people are debating the general safety of Chinese medicine as herbs might contain heavy metals, pesticides, and other goodies found in Chinese soil, water, and air. They worry that governments with their outdated equipment cannot monitor the medicines. And there are structural problems: “because these companies are either state-owned enterprises or large taxpayers, local governments protect them," said Zeng Danhua, a senior analyst at the China Capital Investment Group, and the fines for companies using contaminated herbs were too low to be a deterrent.

Inflation to hit Japanese consumers: largest bread maker in the country, Yamazaki Baking, announced that it would raise prices by 3% to 6% for bread and by 2% to 6% for pastries. Culprit? Not rising demand or optimism or rising wages, but the devalued yen that pushed up the cost of imported flower. The costs of other ingredients have also risen recently. How increasing the cost of food will crank up the economy remains one of the mysteries of Abenomics.

 

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Eurozone manufacturing and services mired in contraction, sez the Purchasing Managers Index, at 47.7 (below 50 = contraction). Germany, miracle economy that can do no wrong, shrank again, though upticks are visible. France continues to slide downhill rapidly. "The Eurozone's second recession in five years looks set to drag on into a seventh successive quarter," the report said. Accelerating decline of new orders in the service sector; job shedding picking up, companies trying to cut capacity, order backlogs shrinking further, now for almost two years.... Very ugly.

Hitting the China jobs wall: a record 7 million students will graduate from university this year, 190,000 more than last year, according to the Ministry of Education. Yet job openings are down 15%, based on a February survey of 500 companies. It's going to be tough for these educated young people finding an appropriate slot.

Japanese government bonds go crazy again, lose their footing, with yields on the 10-year JGB spiking, briefly kissing 1.0% Thursday morning, the highest in a year, over triple the 0.315% on April 5. The goal of Abenomics and the Bank of Japan's money-printing and bond-buying frenzy is to push down yields, while creating a wave of inflation, thus devaluing the debt, and causing losses for everyone who owns it. In response, investors have been dumping JGBs. The BOJ tried to put a stop to the rout by handing out ¥2 trillion ($19 billion) in the morning. Thankfully, for the BOJ, the Nikkei began to crash, and suddenly these despicable JGBs seemed like a pretty good deal; demand picked up, yields dropped to 0.84%. The BOJ has bought equities before to prop up the Nikkei, but Thursday it was busy propping up JGBs and had to let the Nikkei go. When push comes to shove, it will always support bonds, its number one priority, and let stocks swoon.

China manufacturing contracts in May, after months of fitful near-stagnation, sez the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index which dropped to 49.6 from 50.4 in April (under 50 = contraction), a seven-month low. A harbinger: New Orders in April had dropped to a five-month low. Ominously, in May, New Orders as well as New Export Orders fell again, as did Employment, Backlog of Work, Quantity of Purchases, among others. “The cooling manufacturing activities in May reflected slower domestic demand and ongoing external headwinds,” said Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist of Asian Economic Research at HSBC. “A sequential slowdown is likely in the middle of 2Q, casting downside risk to China’s fragile growth recovery.” Not very pretty. Though we’ve seen the manufacturing slowdown coming, the reaction on the Asian stock markets is brutal....

Nikkei crashed over 1,460 points, a 9.2% dive peak-to-bottom from its morning high of 15,943, after having been up 300 points early on, to 14,484. For the day, it’s down 1,143 points, or 7.3%. That’s what happens when the air hisses out of a central-bank money-printing induced bubble. The hot money wants to get out.

 

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

H-P revenues plunged 10.1%, worse than expected, with PC revenues down 20%. Only uptick: lowly printing supplies, such as cartridges, paper, ink, up a measly 2%. Earning didn't "completely crater" like Dell's earnings, CEO Meg Whitman consoled her investors. But H-P had a huge write-off not long ago, and who knows what they plowed into it to make subsequent quarters look better. They always do that. Write-off accounting puts some lipstick on expenses, though it can’t do much about revenues. Props up operating income. “You can feel the turnaround taking hold at H-P,” Whitman said. Indeed, feel. Because there's no visible turnaround in the numbers. Nevertheless, stock jumped 13% after hours.

Justice Department admits: drones killed 4 Americans, in a letter sent to Congressional leaders. One of them was Anwar al-Awlaki, in September 2011 in Yemen. While widely reported, the government had never fessed up to it. The other three were Samir Khan (in the same strike); Awlaki’s son Abdulrahman al-Awlaki, also in Yemen; and Jude Mohammed, in Pakistan. Last year, Attorney General Eric Holder had outlined the government’s legal rationalizations behind knocking off Americans overseas – for example when they pose an “imminent threat of violent attack” and when capturing them is inconvenient. While the whole concept is iffy, the rubbery term "imminent" came under particular fire. But certainly, it won’t be abused; after all, there’s a Nobel Peace Prize winner in the White House.

Delta Air Lines rebels against taxpayer subsidies for Boeing because they benefit state-owned foreign airlines that compete with Delta. The US Export-Import bank is helping Boeing sell wide-body jets by helping foreign airlines buy them. CEO Richard Anderson said Delta would be “perfectly willing” to accept a “total moratorium” on financing of jets, which it also benefits from. "We are trying to do whatever we can to get a level playing field in a world where my government decides that they would rather have my competitors in the marketplace than Delta," he said. In April, Delta sued the Ex-Im Bank to put a stop to these shenanigans. It noted that 46% of the $106.6 billion in the Ex-Im Bank's activities are for aircraft loans or loan guarantees. Emirates and Korean Air were among the biggest beneficiaries, and as Anderson told Reuters, they could get funding without "the balance sheet of the US government." Ah the complex web of government handouts.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda accepts jumpy yields on Japanese Government Bonds that nearly tripled from the April 5 low of 0.315% to today’s 0.90%, exact opposite of what money-printing and bond-buying is supposed to accomplish. Japanese investors have been fleeing JGBs; inflation, if it rises to 2% or more as per plan, will eat them up without compensation from yield. Add yen devaluation to make a nasty investment. He lost a bit of his brashness: "I am not expecting long-term interest rates to increase sharply considering the strong downward pressure being exerted on them by our quantitative and qualitative easing," he said at the press conference after the BOJ’s two-day huddle that left monetary policy unchanged, with the spigot wide open, committed to buying ¥50 trillion in JGBs a year, or 70% of all new bonds the government is issuing. "I believe it is quite possible to prevent any spikes in long-term interest rates," he said with even less certainty, then submitted to fate and accepted rising yields: "If expectations for economic recovery and inflation strengthen sharply, that could outweigh the risk-premium reducing effect and result in increases in interest rates," he said.

Japan trade deficit soars 69.7% in April to ¥879.9 billion, from April a year ago, the tenth months in a row of trade deficits, the worst series since 1980, and the worst April ever. For each of the last three Aprils, the deficit was worse than in the prior one; same for March, February, and January. The trend is relentlessly awful. Abenomics is deepening the hole, but it’s digging at a faster rate. The weaker yen nudged up exports 3.8%, but imports jumped 9.4%. Don’t blame oil: imported crude oil volume dropped 2.2%. Exports to China stagnated, but imports jumped 13.3%; the deficit skyrocketed 60.2%. However, exports to the US rose 14.8% while imports stagnated; the trade surplus leaped 32.5%. Japan exports twice as much to the US as it imports. Perhaps someone in the White House will someday get Japan to open up its auto market. The trade balance with Western Europe flipped from a surplus a year ago to a deficit; exports fell 3.5% and imports rose 11.4%. Abenomics and the money-printing binge have heated up consumption of imported luxury goods and other items that can’t be produced in Japan. For the rest, Abenomics appears to be a giant miscalculation. The graph for the years 2011, 2012, and 2013 shows the worsening trend:

Despite the awful trade data that was much worse than economists had hoped for, the Nikkei jumped 246 points or 1.6%, to 15,627 – oblivious to reality for months now, drunken with money the Bank of Japan is printing.

 

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

“Apple does not use tax gimmicks,” Apple wrote without twitching an eyebrow apparently, in response to a Senate investigation that showed that it sheltered at least $74 billion in profits from US taxes between 2009 and 2012 by using a "complex web" of offshore mailbox companies. One such Irish subsidiary with no employees and no physical existence made $30 billion in profits and didn't pay a dime to a single government anywhere, not even Ireland. Legal, and proof that the US corporate tax dodge code is a scam that bestows a tax-free environment and other welfare handouts to certain companies, while raking less fortunate and often smaller companies over the coals.

Impact of cheap natural gas in the US: the construction of 97 chemical and plastics plants that use natural gas as feedstock has been announced, with investments over $71 billion, sez the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Among them, in Texas alone: Dow Chemical’s plan to plow $4 billion into ethylene crackers and Exxon Mobil’s plan for an ethylene cracker and two polyethylene plants. Others lining up: Chevron Phillips Chemical, LyondellBasell, and Mitsui & Co. Via OilPrice.com. These companies vigorously oppose the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as they fear it would raise prices in the US to the levels natural gas trades for on the world markets. Their pleas fell on deaf ears, a dilemma and opportunity I wrote about.... The Quiet Triumph Of Oil And Gas In Obama’s Policies

Japanese Government Bonds: "Absolutely no guarantee" that Japanese investors will continue to buy them, warned an advisory panel to Finance Minister Taro Aso. Investors who lose confidence in the JGB can easily invest their funds overseas, the report nervously pointed out. Some have already made that shift. Hence the recent spike in yields, despite the Bank of Japan, which is mopping up around 70% of the flood of new bonds that the deficit spending of Abenomics generates. Investors only have to pick up the remaining 30%, but they appear to be reluctant to do so. Why is anyone outside of a government controlled institution still buying this crap?

Finding excuses: Japan supermarket sales dropped 1.9% in April, on a comparable-store basis, from April 2012, with food sales down 0.4% and clothing down 8.8%. Blamed was the "unseasonably cold weather." When sales edged up in February and March, the credit went to Abenomics, not the weather or some other silly thing. A broader media trend: when economic data points are positive, Abenomics gets the credit; when they’re negative, the weather and other reasons are dragged into the scenery, sometimes by their hair.

Mystery pollution in China: unknown foul-smelling goo emerges from cracks in the street, becomes huge, finally gets cleaned up ... and remains unknown.

 

Monday, May 20, 2013

“Every 10 years or so, banks make some horrible mistake and it usually starts with easy money,” said Mike Pinto, vice-chairman of M&T Bank, a regional US bank. “We are worried about the competitive atmosphere. It creates the temptation to do silly things.” He was talking about the credit bubble. US banks made $1.55 trillion in business loans through April, up 10% from last year; banks are falling all over each other trying to goose their profits by making risky loans. US corporations have also sold a record amount of bonds at record low yields and with historically low protections for investors. So now banks are loading up their balance sheets with business loans that will come to haunt them. But no problem. It will just be part of the next financial crisis that will give the eager Fed another opportunity to hand trillions to TBTF bankers to bail them out.

UK wages propaganda war against Scotland, which will hold an inconvenient independence referendum in September 2014. A new report by the UK Treasury, the third in the series, claims that the Scottish banking sector – composed of two large banks, Bank of Scotland and Royal Bank of Scotland, plus smaller ones – would put an independent Scotland at risk. Its assets would be 1250% of Scottish GDP, while the Cypriot banking sector, which brought down Cyprus, was 700% of GDP, the report said ominously. For the UK overall, banking assets are 492% of GDP, also very high. But the UK has “credibility” in the markets to manage that risk, something Scotland would lack. A "feeble attempt to undermine confidence in Scotland's ability to be a successful independent country," retorted Scotland's Finance Secretary John Swinney. "The Treasury, true to form, will outline what is in its own best interests, not what is in the best economic interests of the people of Scotland." He called these assertions misleading; "In terms of share of GDP, in fact, financial services are actually smaller for Scotland at 8.3% than the UK at 9.6%. So if the argument is about risk, then the risk is with the UK," he said.

Now Germany has a real reason to exit the euro: Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein wants it to stay! A bad sign. In an interview with the Welt, he said Germany had profited from the euro the most – from his point of view, “Germany” is “Germany Inc.” But real wages for working Germans have declined since the introduction of the euro, and workers have had a hard time, while wages in Greece, Spain, and other countries have shot up. Though German workers now have jobs, unlike people in Spain and Greece, they earn less than they used to in real terms. For that privilege, German taxpayers (not Germany Inc.) must pay a price, he said, namely bailing out banks and speculators who hold the crappy debt of periphery countries. He predicted utter economic mayhem for Germany if it left the euro. No, German taxpayers will have to bail out weaker countries, he said. And he raved about the "political project" behind the euro, the ultimately total integration of Europe (and of course, he defended TBTF banks, which were more secure, he said, than smaller ones). My question: is Goldman now seriously long the euro?

 

Weekend, May 18 - 19, 2013

Sales skid at S&P 500 companies: 458 companies of the 500 in the index have reported their Q1 results so far: earnings were up a measly 3.4% year-over-year, but sales fell 0.2%. Not exactly the foundation for the gigantic undying stock market rally that has plowed through whatever economic and corporate bad news with nary a twitch. When will this separation of reality from stock prices end? Someday, one way or the other! He who can pinpoint that day will make a lot of money.

Central bank success story: The global market for luxury goods grew 38.6% in three years. From $200 billion in 2009, luxury goods sales jumped 13% in 2010, 11% in 2011, and 10% in 2012, to end up at $275 billion. Despite the Eurozone debt crisis and austerity, despite the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in 2011... no matter what happened in those three years, luxury goods boomed, sez the the just released "Worldwide Luxury Markets Monitor," by Bain & Company for Fondazione Altagamma (PDF). “Absolute luxury items (high-end products with no logo, highest quality materials, and exquisite craftsmanship) lead the way,” the report reassured us, but there were some losers, including “watch consumption” which crashed in China. The report confirmed what we’ve seen everywhere: when central banks hand out trillions to their cronies, it doesn’t do much for the real economy as a whole, nor for employment, but it does one heck of a job at the very top of the pyramid.

"Threat of Default": US hits debt limit on Saturday, but by using a slew of shuffle maneuvers, shell games, tricks, and devices, the US won't actually run out of money until "after Labor Day," Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew told Congress in a letter. In his previous statement, the US would be "okay until Labor Day." Today, he was more frantic. He begged Congress to get its act together and do something "sooner rather than later" to “remove the threat of default.” In its infinite wisdom, Congress had suspended the debt limit till May 18, rather than dealing with it. The debt, though still over the limit, declined in April and early May; tax extractions were fattened by asset bubbles. But since May 10, the debt has once again been rising.

 

Friday, May 17, 2013

US Consumers haven’t felt this good since July 2007, just before all heck broke loose. An "encouraging sign," Reuters sez. For short sellers? The preliminary results of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index jumped to 83.7 in May from 76.4 in April. Big part of the reason: households in the upper third of the income bracket felt flush from the ballooning stock market – the wealth effect. The Fed giveth.... They were able to brush off the payroll tax increase, which Wal-Mart shoppers, as we’ve seen, had a harder time brushing off. The Consumer Expectations index rose to 74.8 from 67.8. And the Current Economic Conditions index leaped to 97.5 from 89.9, the highest since October 2007, a month before the stock markets began to swoon. Impeccable timing, the hallmark of consumers.

Car sales in the EU crept up 1.7% in April, from a horrible April last year. The fact that the parade of ever worsening numbers has finally stopped, at least for a moment, was greeted with a huge sigh of relief. The details of the report aren’t that rosy: sales in the UK, now the second largest market after Germany, jumped 14.8%. Without the UK, sales for the rest of the EU actually dropped 0.46%. It wasn't exactly a smooth trend across the member states: Greece finally seems to have hit bottom, and sales increased 20.9%; in Denmark, they jumped 30.7% and in Finland 142.6%; but they crashed 26% in the Netherlands and 51.9% in Cyprus; they rose 3.8% in Germany but dropped 5.3% in France.

Deafening US media hype: Japan Core Machinery Orders jumped 14.2% in March, seasonally adjusted, from February. The eternal money-printing and fiscal-stimulus apologists dragged it out as proof that Abenomics is working massively. Alas, these are highly volatile big-ticket items, though “core” orders exclude container ships, nuclear reactors, etc., which are even more volatile. To iron out the volatility, the Cabinet Office also offers quarterly numbers. Soooo, core orders in the first quarter of 2013 were actually 4.8% lower than in the first quarter of 2012, when Noda was prime minister. Kampai!

The Japanese take care of their college grads: 93.9% of all those who graduated on March 31, the end of the academic year, had jobs by April 1, the beginning of the business year. This was the second year in a row that the percentage increased, so it’s NOT related to Abenomics, please! College recruitment, like so many things in Japan, is a highly structured process with the idea to get pretty much everyone squared away before the end of the academic year. But those who miss this entry into Japan Inc. have the greatest difficulty getting through the door later. The system is unforgiving punitive to those who don’t toe the line.

About that secret inflation in Argentina: famously, no one is allowed to accurately track or discuss inflation, but all the whisper numbers floating around peg it at over 20% annually. Now confirmation has come from official sources: wage negotiations between unions and the government of President Cristina Fernández Kirchner. Unions are her base. In fact, she personally met with the leaders of six unions that represent about 2 million workers, or 40% of all workers covered by wage negotiations, and made a deal, similar to the deals she’d made with Railway and Bus Drivers’ unions. The agreed-upon wage increases this year to keep the purchasing power of her voters intact? The closest estimate to official CPI that Argentina has? 24%!

 

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Last time French-made cars were sold is the US? 1980? Long time ago. But... French-made models of the Toyota Yaris are coming to the US, Canada, and Mexico, apparently to keep the plant in Onnaing, near Valenciennes, busy. Car sales in Europe have been catastrophic, and plant shutdowns and layoffs are hard to do, especially in France where even thinking about it causes a huge political ruckus. In 2012, 182,841 Yaris were sold in Europe, accounting for 22% of Toyota's total European sales - a highly successful model at the low end of the lineup. North America will get US versions, not EU versions. So no diesels.

Plunging price of gasoline shaves 0.4% from Consumer Price Index in April. Total energy prices dropped 4.3%, with gasoline down 8.1%. We’ll remember those days fondly because that cheap gasoline is now history; prices have been climbing in May! Food prices rose 0.2%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%. For the 12-month period, CPI is up 1.1% and core CPI 1.7%. The Fed might complain that this is below target; but it’s still inflation, and it still whittles down the value of your and my dollars, and everything denominated in them, and it’s still higher than the interest that banks pay on most deposits and CDs, though it’s better than 4.3%, as we had some months in 2011.

Another blow to US manufacturing: Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey – for manufacturing in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware – dropped into the negative, to -5.2 in May, from 1.3 in April (below zero = decline). The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing survey, reported yesterday (below), had also pointed at a contraction. Ominous: new orders dropped to -7.9, the worst since June last year, from -1 in April; the Workweek Index dropped to -12.4, and the Employment Index dropped to -8.7. Manufacturing is only a small part of the US economy, and this region is a small part of the US, so we’re not going to panic just yet...

US Housing Bubble confirmed: Heard an ad on the radio on how to get rich quick by flipping houses – and we’ll show you how. It conveniently offered an 800-number. Something or other was free.... but keep your credit card handy. These kinds of things usually appear late in a bubble.

Death penalty for financial fraud in China. A court in Wenzhou slapped a local, 39-year-old gal, former general manager of Wenzhou Xinfu Investment Consulting Co., with the maximum penalty available, death, for having illegally raised funds for investments starting in 2007. Everything worked fine until October 2011, when her scheme collapsed and she ended up defaulting on a 428 million yuan loan ($69.6 million). Leaves open the question if they’d slap the same penalty on TBTF bank CEOs every time their banks need a bailout. A bit draconian maybe, but something the US might want to consider as well, after not having prosecuted anyone responsible for the financial crisis and for the Fed’s bailouts that followed, though they did hound, as in China, small-scale crooks like Bernie Madoff.

Bad loans at Chinese commercial banks swelled by 6.8% in the first quarter, to 526.5 billion yuan ($85.6 billion), the sixth consecutive quarter of increases, raising the non-performing loan ratio to 0.96%. And NPLs are expected to rise further. One of the many elements in a boundless debt-fueled scheme that will eventually, like the micro-case above, unravel.

The Japanese Diet rubber-stamped the ¥92.6 trillion ($926 billion) budget for fiscal 2013, which started April 1. A breath-taking ¥43 trillion ($425 billion) will have to be borrowed to make ends meet - that's 46.4% of the total outlays! But no problem. Abenomics will get Japan out of its fiscal quagmire, one way or the other, by printing money. Government spending on public works – welfare spending for Japan Inc. – will rise to ¥5.3 trillion. In a show of rare fiscal discipline, welfare spending for the poor will be cut by ¥67 billion. Priorities of Abenomics are becoming clear.

Japanese GDP growth less than a year ago! The economy grew 0.9% in the first quarter 2013 from Q4 last year, or a 3.5% annual rate. Private demand was up some, with investment in housing being fairly strong, but corporate investment lackluster. Public demand – government spending and investment, including boondoggles – jumped, as promised by Abenomics. Exports rose, and so did imports, but not as much. All seasonally adjusted. Great? Give credit to Abenomics for that 0.9% growth in GDP? Because it was the fastest growth since... oops, well, since the first quarter of 2012, when the economy grew 1.3%. Abenomics can't even keep up with Noda's maligned era.

 

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Megabanks "are NOT too big to jail," claimed Attorney General Eric Holder today in a heroic about-face at a House Judiciary hearing, after he'd explained to the Senate Judiciary Committee in early March why exactly they were indeed too big to jail. The Justice Department has not prosecuted any megabanks despite their shenanigans leading up to the Financial Crisis and continuing to this day. A debacle I wrote about.... 'Regulatory Capture' Emasculated The Regulators Of Megabanks.

French purchasing power plunges 1.5% per capita, and 0.9% for all households together in 2012 (difference due to population growth), the worst performance since 1984. Combination of: disposable income creeping up only 0.9%, and prices rising 1.9%. Ah yes, the many benefits of "moderate" or even "below-target" inflation.

Tough day for US manufacturing: industrial production dropped 0.5% in April, after increasing in February and March; year-over-year, it's up only 1.9%. Within it, manufacturing fell 0.4%; fingers point at motor vehicles and parts, down 1.3%. Capacity utilization fell 0.5% to 77.8%, and is 2.4 percentage points below long-term average. Add to that: the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey for May dipped into the red (-1.43, from 3.05 in April). Employment sub-indices were mixed, with number of employees up slightly, but hours worked down sharply. Darkest cloud: new orders were negative. Executive optimism for the next six months declined, second month in a row. Not an exemplary picture of a growing economy.

"My question is, who is going to jail?" wondered House Speaker John Boehner about the IRS scandal. So why didn't he and other Republicans ask that question after the financial crisis, the largest scandal in the US ever?

Swooning energy prices, particularly gasoline, pushed down wholesale prices by 0.7% in April, seasonally adjusted. Food prices also dropped, a godsend for those of us who like to eat, with veggies and meat down the most. Without food and energy, which are highly volatile, the core Producer Price Index rose 0.1%. For the 12-month period, the unadjusted PPI is up a scant 0.6%. If they could just keep it that way!

Warning shot: Russian car sales plunged 8% in April. For the year, they are now 2% below the same period last year, a record year during which sales had jumped 11% from 2011. The good times appear to be over. Is the EU malaise heading east?

Europe stuck in recession: the Eurozone economy shrank 0.2% in the first quarter, from Q4, the sixth quarter of recession in a row, another glorious record. The 27-nation EU contracted 0.1%. Year over year, they’re down 1.0% and 0.7% respectively. Germany's economy inched up 0.1% in Q1, after having plunged 0.7% in Q4, thus barely avoiding the red stamp of recession. Both quarters combined, Germany is in the hole. The lousy performance in both quarters surprisingly surprised pundits. France is formally in a recession; its economy contracted 0.2% in Q1, third contraction in four quarters. Italy and Spain both shriveled 0.5%. Unperturbed, German stocks, while down a smidgen for the day so far, are still above their prior all-time intra-day high of July 2007. This will be seen as the greatest accomplishment of the central bank money-printing binge: separating (at least temporarily) stock markets from reality and allowing them to float in a dream world.

China's pile of foreign exchange grew by 294 billion yuan to 27.363 trillion yuan ($4.41 trillion) in April, according to the People's Bank of China, the fifth month in a row of increases. For the first four months of 2013, the monthly influx averaged 400 billion yuan, nine times the average in 2012. Earlier this month, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the top forex regulator, had threatened to crack down on foreign money flooding the country. China is where the hot money goes – on the bet that the yuan will continue to rise against the dollar which, through the arduous and heroic efforts of the Fed, will continue to lose value.

Nikkei jumps 2.29%, to 15,096, highest since December 28, 2007. If it keeps going like this, it will be above 40,000 soon. This thing has become a joke – even more so than the US stock markets. Japanese government bonds continue their descent, pushing yields up, with the 10-year JGB hitting 0.90% but then settled down at 0.85%. The yen skidded.

 

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Ex-leaders of consumer electronics: Sharp's huge loss is a sign of how Japanese powerhouses have lost the edge to Korean, US, and Chinese rivals. A doozy: ¥545 billion ($5.3 billion) in red ink, a record in its storied century-long history. A top exec reshuffle has been announced, but it won't fix the real issue that is bedeviling Sharp and other Japanese consumer electronics companies, once world leaders, now not even also-rans. Abenomics won't be able to cure that either. This isn't an issue of costs and exchange rates, but of innovation, products, and now increasingly brand (they squandered it).

China's white paper on human rights, helpfully issued in English so that foreigners like me can get their brains washed, starts out promisingly: "Since the arrival of the 21st century, the Chinese people have been making constant efforts in advancing human rights protection along the path of building socialism with Chinese characteristics under the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese government." Further into it, the paper clarifies priorities: "China has a population of over 1.3 billion. For such a populous country, it would be impossible to protect the people's rights and interests without first developing the economy to feed and clothe the people." Money before rights. But it also points out how the government has become much more transparent in many ways, which few people will dispute (text in full).

Inflation hits Japan: wholesale prices rose for 5th month in a row in April, by 0.3% from March, with the index at 101.4 (2010 prices = 100). Electricity, gas, water, lumber, and wood products jumped over 3%. Some of it was due to the weakening yen that made imported fuels and raw materials more expensive. How exactly higher prices would cure Japan’s economic ills remains a mystery, though it will give a stylish haircut to all those owning Japanese Government Bonds....

Japanese Government Bonds skid once again: yields rose, for the 10-year JGB to 0.85%, from 0.79% yesterday, from 0.69% on Friday, and from 0.315% on April 5, the day they went bonkers. While yields are still ultra-low, the rise has been relentless, not at all what the BOJ wants – and now there's also volatility, rare sight in the JGB market. Japanese institutions and individuals are buying foreign bonds with higher yields to diversify out of the yen that has been doomed by Abenomics to decline. If this turns into a massive dumping of yen, if the BOJ cannot keep it under control, the selloff might turn into a rout, and the BOJ and government-controlled institutions will be the only ones left buying. In sympathy, mortgage rates are creeping up, as are bank loans. The opposite of what Abenomics wants to accomplish. Free money is suddenly becoming more expensive. 

Click for Older Rumblings....

VIDEOS

Wolf Richter on Max Keiser's "On The Edge" 
"The Pauperization of America"

Wolf Richter on the Keiser Report
"Where the Money Goes to Die"

Clarke and Dawe: European Debt Crisis
Two favorite Australian Comedians

Clarke and Dawe: Quantitative Easing
Big industrial-strength printers, all facing the window

The Fastest Drive Ever Through San Francisco
Don't try to do this yourself
 

humanERROR - by "Frying Dutchman"
Powerful, lyrical appeal to the Japanese. Slams nuke industry, MSM, bureaucrats, and politicians.

« Ukraine Crushed in $1.1bn Fake Gas Deal | Main | From Horrid To Merely Dismal: Feeling Better About The New Reality »
Wednesday
Nov282012

Censored: Poverty Report in Germany

On September 17, the German Labor Ministry sent a draft report “on Poverty and Wealth” to the other ministries to be rubber-stamped. Only the final report, once sanctified by Chancellor Angela Merkel, would be made public. The draft was supposed to remain hidden. But it seeped to the surface almost immediately. And it was hot. Too hot.

The massive data (PDF, 535 pages) described the tough reality that many people faced in Germany—a reality that got tougher every year. For example, in 1998, the lower 50% of the population owned 4% of all private wealth, while the upper 10% owned 45%. By 2008, the lower 50% owned only 1%, but the upper 10% had increased its share to 53% (at the expense also of the in-between 40%). Other reports have painted similar pictures.

The poverty report by Germany’s statistical agency showed that the “poverty rate” in Germany has been creeping up: in 2008, it was 15.5%; in 2009 it was 15.6%, and in 2010 it was 15.8%. Particularly hard-hit were people under 65 who lived alone. Their poverty rate was 36.1%. For single-parent households, it was 37.1%. The city of Munich issued its own poverty report. By taking into account Munich’s high cost of living, it found that nearly a fifth of its residents lived in poverty.

Poverty data has been stirring public debate for a while, and across most of Europe. Even the largest consumer products companies are adjusting to it by using commercial strategies that were successful in developing countries [read....  The “Pauperization of Europe”]. But now the Labor Ministry’s “Poverty and Wealth” report, as revised by the Economy Ministry, was leaked to the Süddeutsche Zeitung, which then put a grunt to work to compare the two versions. Turns out, the original version had been censured!  

It started in the introduction. In the new version, the sentence, “Private wealth in Germany is very unevenly distributed,” has been deleted.

The original version pointed out: “While wages have risen in the upper areas over the past ten years, lower wages adjusted for inflation have dropped. The income spread has increased,” which would hurt “the sense of justice of the people” and could “jeopardize social cohesion.” Incendiary words, emanating from a Labor Ministry run by a conservative government. Too incendiary.

It was replaced by the new jargon, heard so often in the battle over Greece: falling real wages were an “expression of structural improvements” in the labor market and created low-wage jobs for many unemployed people.

The report also noted that the hourly wage of many people who live alone and work fulltime wasn’t enough to secure a livelihood. This “increased the risks of poverty and weakened social cohesion.” That comment was deleted. Now it only said that the low-wage issue “should be looked at critically.”

Even certain data has been deleted, including this sentence: “However, in 2010, over four million people worked in Germany for an hourly wage of less than €7.”

The opposition was outraged. “The whitewash of the report is shabby,” said Katja Kipping, head of the Left Party, accusing the government of a cover-up.

“Those who hide and ignore reality cannot make fair policies,” said Andrea Nahles, SPD Secretary General. “The reality” for which the coalition was “responsible” was “too gloomy even for the Merkel government. She wants to deny it instead of tackling the problems.” And she lambasted the coalition’s policies that served “only a very specific affluent clientele.”

“The federal Government wants to water down, conceal, and beautify crucial elements of the report,” griped Annelie Buntenbach, board member of the Confederation of German Trade Unions (DGB), an umbrella organization representing over 6 million workers.

The report has heated up the public fight between Labor Minister Ursula von der Leyen (CDU), who doesn’t mind shining a light on conditions in Germany, and Economy Minister Philipp Rösler (FDP), who is facing a very iffy reelection fight. The CDU and FDP are uneasy coalition partners. But if the FDP, which is teetering, doesn’t make it into parliament in next year’s election, Rösler would be axed from any role in the government.

He and laissez-faire stalwarts at his ministry were bothered by comments on the increasing social chasms in Germany, and their impact on social cohesion. He’d already criticized the original report after it was leaked, claiming that certain elements weren’t “the opinion of the Federal government.”

Then the backpedaling started. A spokesperson of the Labor Ministry declared that, yes, there’d been requests to change some things, but “all reports of the Federal Government” had to be coordinated with all ministers and the chancellor. It allowed the government to speak with one voice. So this was “a totally normal process.”

Alas, the statement that censuring such reports was “a totally normal process” caused another burst of outrage. As always, to no effect.

That this debacle would occur just as more money was being tossed at Greece, where poverty has been surging and where wages have been plunging, was priceless. By keeping Greece in the Eurozone, eurocrats or better “euro morons” have successfully avoided a weak drachma and a subsequent Greek hyperinflation. Instead they have successfully created stagflation. Read...  Euro Morons: Hyperinflation Successfully Avoided, Stagflation Successfully Created.

EmailEmail Article to Friend

Reader Comments (5)

Combination of 'natural' underclass, to which badly educated immigrants were added and now the aging comes on top of that. Aging with unfunded rapidly cost-increasing entitlements and lower participationrates.
Nothing new we knew this from around 1970 or so as we knew from not far after that that the non-Western immigration would not do the job of keeping this affordable (you have hands to do some of the work, but that is not the main problem with mass unemployment. The main problems are addeing considerable nett receivers makes things simply not more affordable (plus there is a skillsgap with these groups). Problem was hidden for the man in the street (and he/she didnot really grasp it anyway) and now in a crisis when the money runs out and aging really hits in it cannot longer be denied (or better escaped).

That is the reason why I think that a bit further on up the road the European middleclasses who bring up most of the taxes will demand lower taxes to be able to save themselves/build up a pension. Which leaves society with a whole range of social economic misfits at the bottom. For whom entitlements are only partly possible/affordable anymore. People who are structurally unemployed, disabled (or would be disabled), aged without own pension and savings, most non-Western immigrants. problem the European countries have is you cannot charge a middle of the road person 50/60% or more in all sorts of taxes and give nothing or hardly nothing in return. Let people still pay for most of their healthcare and education of their kids, hardly insured in case of a calamity, marginal statepensions with these sort of taxrates will not work.

My ideas have always been that the crisis will end with some countries having an Ireland model (low tax business oriented) and otherones a French. With the latter to be stayed away from as it is bound to collapse. In that respect I see the divide North South growing further. As I expect the North to see the light relatively early in the process and the South to continue as now until the money runs out and there is nothing left to finance better education that is one of the main pillars of wealth and economic success.
But also in countries like Germany pretty massive poverty. Well poverty according to Western standards. With as huge added problem that prices are extremely high and no cheap alternatives. You can easily live on European poverty line income in half of the world. Not good for your competitiveness with a more and more globalised world. Europe will have to find a way to make lower end incomes able to survive. And I donot see that happening from the revenue that would be needed to do that side. And even less from the cost of living side of things.
November 29, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRik
@Rik who writes "You can easily live on European poverty line income in half of the world."...
Perhaps... if one is well under 45 years of age, never falls ill and does not expect to live beyond 60-65.
November 29, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterTon
plainsarcher at 4:22 PM November 26, 2012
Progressives really don't like personal freedom much because it is a stumbling block to controlling you. In their minds, freedom is a very narrow corridor of rights they will grudgingly bestow, as long as you behave yourself. You may enjoy free speech, as long as you say only things they want to hear. Anything else is hate speech and you will be incarcerated. Economic freedom is also closely monitored to make sure you are exhibiting the proper behaviors with regard to energy usage, the foods you eat and so on. If you eat red meat, drive a low mileage car and smoke cigarettes, you are simultaneously a lovely form of tax revenue and public enemy number one. All those hours you spent at work, coming in early and staying late, will pay for the ample retirement packages of the very public union employees who tax you, regulate you and curse you as a greedy pig. If you want an explanation that would make a circus contortionist proud, just ask a Chinese diplomat what personal freedom is. That is our future.



Comment from:

Some in Britain say EU is bringing a new 'Marxist revolution'

By Henry Chu, Los Angeles Times, November 25, 2012, 5:24 p.m.





-



"... today's New Left carries out a program of social re-engineering using lies, myths, and "critical theory." Critical theory, developed by the Frankfurt School of neo-Marxists, is the deconstructive program that asserts no positive remedy for mankind except to destroy capitalism, whose assumption of private property is the lynchpin that undergirds the individual freedoms espoused by the Enlightenment."



The Triumph of the State

November 25, 2012, By Kyle Becker


"The trajectory of Europe is the vision of America's future: the triumph of the state, and the return of the pre-modern, arbitrary rule of self-appointed elites, shameless fawned upon by sycophantic intellectuals. And beneath their petty heights of arrogance and condescension shuffle the great, brooding underclass of humanity -- perpetually in need and perpetually restrained from improving its own lot."

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/11/the_triumph_of_the_state.html#ixzz2DQKXAkoQ
November 29, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterDADDY WARBUCKS
@Ton
Including healthcare, which is a) often as well much cheaper than in the US or Europe and b) even with very marginal healthcare people nowadays get 70+ in most parts of the world (for people with European poverty line income). I doubt even if it is lower for this incomegroup than average US 50% of the costs add basically 2 hospital years while the average unhealthy lifestyle of the average American will likely reduce it with more than those 2 years.
Furthermore1 it is very doubtful if the European healthcare entitlements will remain as they look basically unaffordable long term.
Furthermore2 the costs for the present healthcare should be added to the poverty line income (somebody has to pay it and now it is often not included). So if you take that into consideration it would further increase spending income in half of the world and substantially (as healthcare is almost everywhere cheaper than in the West).

You are missing my point btw. The point is that if per worker (taxpayer) 0.7 other not working people live from entitlements (as is roughly what we will see in Europe in a few decades not even to mention civil servants), you need high taxes or social security premia as nearly nothing is funded. And these taxes are part of the coststructure via wages. It simply is extremely negative for your competitveness.

My problem is not that Europeans would like to have a systen with free healthcare and a lot of social security. That is up to them. My point is that I donot see the working population paying for it if taxes have to get up from say 45% to 60% (and both overall probably more) for an average worker to keep paying for it.
My problem is also not immigration. Up to Europeans themselves to decide if they want that or not. My problem is that if you get mainly poorly educated people in you might have some hand to do the work (if you in general drop the present standards) for say the lederly, the problem is that as a group in no way they will pay the taxes necessary for their own entitlements not even to mention the healthcare and pensions of the elderly. They look more like an added problem than a solution.
November 29, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRik
I can't find the article anymore, but I recall reading that Germans were having a harder and harder time paying their electric bill because it's so high. A direct result of high priced wind and solar....ok found it! http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/germany-s-nuclear-phase-out-brings-unexpected-costs-to-consumers-a-837007.html

"About 200,000 recipients of Hartz IV, Germany's benefits program for the long-term unemployed, had their power cut off last year because of unpaid bills, according to Paritätische Gesamtverband, an umbrella association for social movements in Germany.

The consumer protection organization for the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia estimates that number to be as high as 600,000 per year. Ulrike Mascher, president of VdK, an interest group focusing on social justice, uses terms such as 'fuel poverty' and a 'blatant violation of fundamental social rights,' when talking about the issue."
November 30, 2012 | Unregistered Commenterjohnnygeneric

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
 
All HTML will be escaped. Hyperlinks will be created for URLs automatically.