DEBTOR NATION

RUMBLINGS FROM THE PIT

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Eurozone manufacturing and services mired in contraction, sez the Purchasing Managers Index, at 47.7 (below 50 = contraction). Germany, miracle economy that can do no wrong, shrank again, though upticks are visible. France continues to slide downhill rapidly. "The Eurozone's second recession in five years looks set to drag on into a seventh successive quarter," the report said. Accelerating decline of new orders in the service sector; job shedding picking up, companies trying to cut capacity, order backlogs shrinking further, now for almost two years.... Very ugly.

Hitting the China jobs wall: a record 7 million students will graduate from university this year, 190,000 more than last year, according to the Ministry of Education. Yet job openings are down 15%, based on a February survey of 500 companies. It's going to be tough for these educated young people finding an appropriate slot.

Japanese government bonds go crazy again, lose their footing, with yields on the 10-year JGB spiking, briefly kissing 1.0% Thursday morning, the highest in a year, over triple the 0.315% on April 5. The goal of Abenomics and the Bank of Japan's money-printing and bond-buying frenzy is to push down yields, while creating a wave of inflation, thus devaluing the debt, and causing losses for everyone who owns it. In response, investors have been dumping JGBs. The BOJ tried to put a stop to the rout by handing out ¥2 trillion ($19 billion) in the morning. Thankfully, for the BOJ, the Nikkei began to crash, and suddenly these despicable JGBs seemed like a pretty good deal; demand picked up, yields dropped to 0.84%. The BOJ has bought equities before to prop up the Nikkei, but Thursday it was busy propping up JGBs and had to let the Nikkei go. When push comes to shove, it will always support bonds, its number one priority, and let stocks swoon.

China manufacturing contracts in May, after months of fitful near-stagnation, sez the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index which dropped to 49.6 from 50.4 in April (under 50 = contraction), a seven-month low. A harbinger: New Orders in April had dropped to a five-month low. Ominously, in May, New Orders as well as New Export Orders fell again, as did Employment, Backlog of Work, Quantity of Purchases, among others. “The cooling manufacturing activities in May reflected slower domestic demand and ongoing external headwinds,” said Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist of Asian Economic Research at HSBC. “A sequential slowdown is likely in the middle of 2Q, casting downside risk to China’s fragile growth recovery.” Not very pretty. Though we’ve seen the manufacturing slowdown coming, the reaction on the Asian stock markets is brutal....

Nikkei crashed over 1,460 points, a 9.2% dive peak-to-bottom from its morning high of 15,943, after having been up 300 points early on, to 14,484. For the day, it’s down 1,143 points, or 7.3%. That’s what happens when the air hisses out of a central-bank money-printing induced bubble. The hot money wants to get out.

 

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

H-P revenues plunged 10.1%, worse than expected, with PC revenues down 20%. Only uptick: lowly printing supplies, such as cartridges, paper, ink, up a measly 2%. Earning didn't "completely crater" like Dell's earnings, CEO Meg Whitman consoled her investors. But H-P had a huge write-off not long ago, and who knows what they plowed into it to make subsequent quarters look better. They always do that. Write-off accounting puts some lipstick on expenses, though it can’t do much about revenues. Props up operating income. “You can feel the turnaround taking hold at H-P,” Whitman said. Indeed, feel. Because there's no visible turnaround in the numbers. Nevertheless, stock jumped 13% after hours.

Justice Department admits: drones killed 4 Americans, in a letter sent to Congressional leaders. One of them was Anwar al-Awlaki, in September 2011 in Yemen. While widely reported, the government had never fessed up to it. The other three were Samir Khan (in the same strike); Awlaki’s son Abdulrahman al-Awlaki, also in Yemen; and Jude Mohammed, in Pakistan. Last year, Attorney General Eric Holder had outlined the government’s legal rationalizations behind knocking off Americans overseas – for example when they pose an “imminent threat of violent attack” and when capturing them is inconvenient. While the whole concept is iffy, the rubbery term "imminent" came under particular fire. But certainly, it won’t be abused; after all, there’s a Nobel Peace Prize winner in the White House.

Delta Air Lines rebels against taxpayer subsidies for Boeing because they benefit state-owned foreign airlines that compete with Delta. The US Export-Import bank is helping Boeing sell wide-body jets by helping foreign airlines buy them. CEO Richard Anderson said Delta would be “perfectly willing” to accept a “total moratorium” on financing of jets, which it also benefits from. "We are trying to do whatever we can to get a level playing field in a world where my government decides that they would rather have my competitors in the marketplace than Delta," he said. In April, Delta sued the Ex-Im Bank to put a stop to these shenanigans. It noted that 46% of the $106.6 billion in the Ex-Im Bank's activities are for aircraft loans or loan guarantees. Emirates and Korean Air were among the biggest beneficiaries, and as Anderson told Reuters, they could get funding without "the balance sheet of the US government." Ah the complex web of government handouts.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda accepts jumpy yields on Japanese Government Bonds that nearly tripled from the April 5 low of 0.315% to today’s 0.90%, exact opposite of what money-printing and bond-buying is supposed to accomplish. Japanese investors have been fleeing JGBs; inflation, if it rises to 2% or more as per plan, will eat them up without compensation from yield. Add yen devaluation to make a nasty investment. He lost a bit of his brashness: "I am not expecting long-term interest rates to increase sharply considering the strong downward pressure being exerted on them by our quantitative and qualitative easing," he said at the press conference after the BOJ’s two-day huddle that left monetary policy unchanged, with the spigot wide open, committed to buying ¥50 trillion in JGBs a year, or 70% of all new bonds the government is issuing. "I believe it is quite possible to prevent any spikes in long-term interest rates," he said with even less certainty, then submitted to fate and accepted rising yields: "If expectations for economic recovery and inflation strengthen sharply, that could outweigh the risk-premium reducing effect and result in increases in interest rates," he said.

Japan trade deficit soars 69.7% in April to ¥879.9 billion, from April a year ago, the tenth months in a row of trade deficits, the worst series since 1980, and the worst April ever. For each of the last three Aprils, the deficit was worse than in the prior one; same for March, February, and January. The trend is relentlessly awful. Abenomics is deepening the hole, but it’s digging at a faster rate. The weaker yen nudged up exports 3.8%, but imports jumped 9.4%. Don’t blame oil: imported crude oil volume dropped 2.2%. Exports to China stagnated, but imports jumped 13.3%; the deficit skyrocketed 60.2%. However, exports to the US rose 14.8% while imports stagnated; the trade surplus leaped 32.5%. Japan exports twice as much to the US as it imports. Perhaps someone in the White House will someday get Japan to open up its auto market. The trade balance with Western Europe flipped from a surplus a year ago to a deficit; exports fell 3.5% and imports rose 11.4%. Abenomics and the money-printing binge have heated up consumption of imported luxury goods and other items that can’t be produced in Japan. For the rest, Abenomics appears to be a giant miscalculation. The graph for the years 2011, 2012, and 2013 shows the worsening trend:

Despite the awful trade data that was much worse than economists had hoped for, the Nikkei jumped 246 points or 1.6%, to 15,627 – oblivious to reality for months now, drunken with money the Bank of Japan is printing.

 

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

“Apple does not use tax gimmicks,” Apple wrote without twitching an eyebrow apparently, in response to a Senate investigation that showed that it sheltered at least $74 billion in profits from US taxes between 2009 and 2012 by using a "complex web" of offshore mailbox companies. One such Irish subsidiary with no employees and no physical existence made $30 billion in profits and didn't pay a dime to a single government anywhere, not even Ireland. Legal, and proof that the US corporate tax dodge code is a scam that bestows a tax-free environment and other welfare handouts to certain companies, while raking less fortunate and often smaller companies over the coals.

Impact of cheap natural gas in the US: the construction of 97 chemical and plastics plants that use natural gas as feedstock has been announced, with investments over $71 billion, sez the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Among them, in Texas alone: Dow Chemical’s plan to plow $4 billion into ethylene crackers and Exxon Mobil’s plan for an ethylene cracker and two polyethylene plants. Others lining up: Chevron Phillips Chemical, LyondellBasell, and Mitsui & Co. Via OilPrice.com. These companies vigorously oppose the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as they fear it would raise prices in the US to the levels natural gas trades for on the world markets. Their pleas fell on deaf ears, a dilemma and opportunity I wrote about.... The Quiet Triumph Of Oil And Gas In Obama’s Policies

Japanese Government Bonds: "Absolutely no guarantee" that Japanese investors will continue to buy them, warned an advisory panel to Finance Minister Taro Aso. Investors who lose confidence in the JGB can easily invest their funds overseas, the report nervously pointed out. Some have already made that shift. Hence the recent spike in yields, despite the Bank of Japan, which is mopping up around 70% of the flood of new bonds that the deficit spending of Abenomics generates. Investors only have to pick up the remaining 30%, but they appear to be reluctant to do so. Why is anyone outside of a government controlled institution still buying this crap?

Finding excuses: Japan supermarket sales dropped 1.9% in April, on a comparable-store basis, from April 2012, with food sales down 0.4% and clothing down 8.8%. Blamed was the "unseasonably cold weather." When sales edged up in February and March, the credit went to Abenomics, not the weather or some other silly thing. A broader media trend: when economic data points are positive, Abenomics gets the credit; when they’re negative, the weather and other reasons are dragged into the scenery, sometimes by their hair.

Mystery pollution in China: unknown foul-smelling goo emerges from cracks in the street, becomes huge, finally gets cleaned up ... and remains unknown.

 

Monday, May 20, 2013

“Every 10 years or so, banks make some horrible mistake and it usually starts with easy money,” said Mike Pinto, vice-chairman of M&T Bank, a regional US bank. “We are worried about the competitive atmosphere. It creates the temptation to do silly things.” He was talking about the credit bubble. US banks made $1.55 trillion in business loans through April, up 10% from last year; banks are falling all over each other trying to goose their profits by making risky loans. US corporations have also sold a record amount of bonds at record low yields and with historically low protections for investors. So now banks are loading up their balance sheets with business loans that will come to haunt them. But no problem. It will just be part of the next financial crisis that will give the eager Fed another opportunity to hand trillions to TBTF bankers to bail them out.

UK wages propaganda war against Scotland, which will hold an inconvenient independence referendum in September 2014. A new report by the UK Treasury, the third in the series, claims that the Scottish banking sector – composed of two large banks, Bank of Scotland and Royal Bank of Scotland, plus smaller ones – would put an independent Scotland at risk. Its assets would be 1250% of Scottish GDP, while the Cypriot banking sector, which brought down Cyprus, was 700% of GDP, the report said ominously. For the UK overall, banking assets are 492% of GDP, also very high. But the UK has “credibility” in the markets to manage that risk, something Scotland would lack. A "feeble attempt to undermine confidence in Scotland's ability to be a successful independent country," retorted Scotland's Finance Secretary John Swinney. "The Treasury, true to form, will outline what is in its own best interests, not what is in the best economic interests of the people of Scotland." He called these assertions misleading; "In terms of share of GDP, in fact, financial services are actually smaller for Scotland at 8.3% than the UK at 9.6%. So if the argument is about risk, then the risk is with the UK," he said.

Now Germany has a real reason to exit the euro: Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein wants it to stay! A bad sign. In an interview with the Welt, he said Germany had profited from the euro the most – from his point of view, “Germany” is “Germany Inc.” But real wages for working Germans have declined since the introduction of the euro, and workers have had a hard time, while wages in Greece, Spain, and other countries have shot up. Though German workers now have jobs, unlike people in Spain and Greece, they earn less than they used to in real terms. For that privilege, German taxpayers (not Germany Inc.) must pay a price, he said, namely bailing out banks and speculators who hold the crappy debt of periphery countries. He predicted utter economic mayhem for Germany if it left the euro. No, German taxpayers will have to bail out weaker countries, he said. And he raved about the "political project" behind the euro, the ultimately total integration of Europe (and of course, he defended TBTF banks, which were more secure, he said, than smaller ones). My question: is Goldman now seriously long the euro?

 

Weekend, May 18 - 19, 2013

Sales skid at S&P 500 companies: 458 companies of the 500 in the index have reported their Q1 results so far: earnings were up a measly 3.4% year-over-year, but sales fell 0.2%. Not exactly the foundation for the gigantic undying stock market rally that has plowed through whatever economic and corporate bad news with nary a twitch. When will this separation of reality from stock prices end? Someday, one way or the other! He who can pinpoint that day will make a lot of money.

Central bank success story: The global market for luxury goods grew 38.6% in three years. From $200 billion in 2009, luxury goods sales jumped 13% in 2010, 11% in 2011, and 10% in 2012, to end up at $275 billion. Despite the Eurozone debt crisis and austerity, despite the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in 2011... no matter what happened in those three years, luxury goods boomed, sez the the just released "Worldwide Luxury Markets Monitor," by Bain & Company for Fondazione Altagamma (PDF). “Absolute luxury items (high-end products with no logo, highest quality materials, and exquisite craftsmanship) lead the way,” the report reassured us, but there were some losers, including “watch consumption” which crashed in China. The report confirmed what we’ve seen everywhere: when central banks hand out trillions to their cronies, it doesn’t do much for the real economy as a whole, nor for employment, but it does one heck of a job at the very top of the pyramid.

"Threat of Default": US hits debt limit on Saturday, but by using a slew of shuffle maneuvers, shell games, tricks, and devices, the US won't actually run out of money until "after Labor Day," Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew told Congress in a letter. In his previous statement, the US would be "okay until Labor Day." Today, he was more frantic. He begged Congress to get its act together and do something "sooner rather than later" to “remove the threat of default.” In its infinite wisdom, Congress had suspended the debt limit till May 18, rather than dealing with it. The debt, though still over the limit, declined in April and early May; tax extractions were fattened by asset bubbles. But since May 10, the debt has once again been rising.

 

Friday, May 17, 2013

US Consumers haven’t felt this good since July 2007, just before all heck broke loose. An "encouraging sign," Reuters sez. For short sellers? The preliminary results of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index jumped to 83.7 in May from 76.4 in April. Big part of the reason: households in the upper third of the income bracket felt flush from the ballooning stock market – the wealth effect. The Fed giveth.... They were able to brush off the payroll tax increase, which Wal-Mart shoppers, as we’ve seen, had a harder time brushing off. The Consumer Expectations index rose to 74.8 from 67.8. And the Current Economic Conditions index leaped to 97.5 from 89.9, the highest since October 2007, a month before the stock markets began to swoon. Impeccable timing, the hallmark of consumers.

Car sales in the EU crept up 1.7% in April, from a horrible April last year. The fact that the parade of ever worsening numbers has finally stopped, at least for a moment, was greeted with a huge sigh of relief. The details of the report aren’t that rosy: sales in the UK, now the second largest market after Germany, jumped 14.8%. Without the UK, sales for the rest of the EU actually dropped 0.46%. It wasn't exactly a smooth trend across the member states: Greece finally seems to have hit bottom, and sales increased 20.9%; in Denmark, they jumped 30.7% and in Finland 142.6%; but they crashed 26% in the Netherlands and 51.9% in Cyprus; they rose 3.8% in Germany but dropped 5.3% in France.

Deafening US media hype: Japan Core Machinery Orders jumped 14.2% in March, seasonally adjusted, from February. The eternal money-printing and fiscal-stimulus apologists dragged it out as proof that Abenomics is working massively. Alas, these are highly volatile big-ticket items, though “core” orders exclude container ships, nuclear reactors, etc., which are even more volatile. To iron out the volatility, the Cabinet Office also offers quarterly numbers. Soooo, core orders in the first quarter of 2013 were actually 4.8% lower than in the first quarter of 2012, when Noda was prime minister. Kampai!

The Japanese take care of their college grads: 93.9% of all those who graduated on March 31, the end of the academic year, had jobs by April 1, the beginning of the business year. This was the second year in a row that the percentage increased, so it’s NOT related to Abenomics, please! College recruitment, like so many things in Japan, is a highly structured process with the idea to get pretty much everyone squared away before the end of the academic year. But those who miss this entry into Japan Inc. have the greatest difficulty getting through the door later. The system is unforgiving punitive to those who don’t toe the line.

About that secret inflation in Argentina: famously, no one is allowed to accurately track or discuss inflation, but all the whisper numbers floating around peg it at over 20% annually. Now confirmation has come from official sources: wage negotiations between unions and the government of President Cristina Fernández Kirchner. Unions are her base. In fact, she personally met with the leaders of six unions that represent about 2 million workers, or 40% of all workers covered by wage negotiations, and made a deal, similar to the deals she’d made with Railway and Bus Drivers’ unions. The agreed-upon wage increases this year to keep the purchasing power of her voters intact? The closest estimate to official CPI that Argentina has? 24%!

 

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Last time French-made cars were sold is the US? 1980? Long time ago. But... French-made models of the Toyota Yaris are coming to the US, Canada, and Mexico, apparently to keep the plant in Onnaing, near Valenciennes, busy. Car sales in Europe have been catastrophic, and plant shutdowns and layoffs are hard to do, especially in France where even thinking about it causes a huge political ruckus. In 2012, 182,841 Yaris were sold in Europe, accounting for 22% of Toyota's total European sales - a highly successful model at the low end of the lineup. North America will get US versions, not EU versions. So no diesels.

Plunging price of gasoline shaves 0.4% from Consumer Price Index in April. Total energy prices dropped 4.3%, with gasoline down 8.1%. We’ll remember those days fondly because that cheap gasoline is now history; prices have been climbing in May! Food prices rose 0.2%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%. For the 12-month period, CPI is up 1.1% and core CPI 1.7%. The Fed might complain that this is below target; but it’s still inflation, and it still whittles down the value of your and my dollars, and everything denominated in them, and it’s still higher than the interest that banks pay on most deposits and CDs, though it’s better than 4.3%, as we had some months in 2011.

Another blow to US manufacturing: Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey – for manufacturing in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware – dropped into the negative, to -5.2 in May, from 1.3 in April (below zero = decline). The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing survey, reported yesterday (below), had also pointed at a contraction. Ominous: new orders dropped to -7.9, the worst since June last year, from -1 in April; the Workweek Index dropped to -12.4, and the Employment Index dropped to -8.7. Manufacturing is only a small part of the US economy, and this region is a small part of the US, so we’re not going to panic just yet...

US Housing Bubble confirmed: Heard an ad on the radio on how to get rich quick by flipping houses – and we’ll show you how. It conveniently offered an 800-number. Something or other was free.... but keep your credit card handy. These kinds of things usually appear late in a bubble.

Death penalty for financial fraud in China. A court in Wenzhou slapped a local, 39-year-old gal, former general manager of Wenzhou Xinfu Investment Consulting Co., with the maximum penalty available, death, for having illegally raised funds for investments starting in 2007. Everything worked fine until October 2011, when her scheme collapsed and she ended up defaulting on a 428 million yuan loan ($69.6 million). Leaves open the question if they’d slap the same penalty on TBTF bank CEOs every time their banks need a bailout. A bit draconian maybe, but something the US might want to consider as well, after not having prosecuted anyone responsible for the financial crisis and for the Fed’s bailouts that followed, though they did hound, as in China, small-scale crooks like Bernie Madoff.

Bad loans at Chinese commercial banks swelled by 6.8% in the first quarter, to 526.5 billion yuan ($85.6 billion), the sixth consecutive quarter of increases, raising the non-performing loan ratio to 0.96%. And NPLs are expected to rise further. One of the many elements in a boundless debt-fueled scheme that will eventually, like the micro-case above, unravel.

The Japanese Diet rubber-stamped the ¥92.6 trillion ($926 billion) budget for fiscal 2013, which started April 1. A breath-taking ¥43 trillion ($425 billion) will have to be borrowed to make ends meet - that's 46.4% of the total outlays! But no problem. Abenomics will get Japan out of its fiscal quagmire, one way or the other, by printing money. Government spending on public works – welfare spending for Japan Inc. – will rise to ¥5.3 trillion. In a show of rare fiscal discipline, welfare spending for the poor will be cut by ¥67 billion. Priorities of Abenomics are becoming clear.

Japanese GDP growth less than a year ago! The economy grew 0.9% in the first quarter 2013 from Q4 last year, or a 3.5% annual rate. Private demand was up some, with investment in housing being fairly strong, but corporate investment lackluster. Public demand – government spending and investment, including boondoggles – jumped, as promised by Abenomics. Exports rose, and so did imports, but not as much. All seasonally adjusted. Great? Give credit to Abenomics for that 0.9% growth in GDP? Because it was the fastest growth since... oops, well, since the first quarter of 2012, when the economy grew 1.3%. Abenomics can't even keep up with Noda's maligned era.

 

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Megabanks "are NOT too big to jail," claimed Attorney General Eric Holder today in a heroic about-face at a House Judiciary hearing, after he'd explained to the Senate Judiciary Committee in early March why exactly they were indeed too big to jail. The Justice Department has not prosecuted any megabanks despite their shenanigans leading up to the Financial Crisis and continuing to this day. A debacle I wrote about.... 'Regulatory Capture' Emasculated The Regulators Of Megabanks.

French purchasing power plunges 1.5% per capita, and 0.9% for all households together in 2012 (difference due to population growth), the worst performance since 1984. Combination of: disposable income creeping up only 0.9%, and prices rising 1.9%. Ah yes, the many benefits of "moderate" or even "below-target" inflation.

Tough day for US manufacturing: industrial production dropped 0.5% in April, after increasing in February and March; year-over-year, it's up only 1.9%. Within it, manufacturing fell 0.4%; fingers point at motor vehicles and parts, down 1.3%. Capacity utilization fell 0.5% to 77.8%, and is 2.4 percentage points below long-term average. Add to that: the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey for May dipped into the red (-1.43, from 3.05 in April). Employment sub-indices were mixed, with number of employees up slightly, but hours worked down sharply. Darkest cloud: new orders were negative. Executive optimism for the next six months declined, second month in a row. Not an exemplary picture of a growing economy.

"My question is, who is going to jail?" wondered House Speaker John Boehner about the IRS scandal. So why didn't he and other Republicans ask that question after the financial crisis, the largest scandal in the US ever?

Swooning energy prices, particularly gasoline, pushed down wholesale prices by 0.7% in April, seasonally adjusted. Food prices also dropped, a godsend for those of us who like to eat, with veggies and meat down the most. Without food and energy, which are highly volatile, the core Producer Price Index rose 0.1%. For the 12-month period, the unadjusted PPI is up a scant 0.6%. If they could just keep it that way!

Warning shot: Russian car sales plunged 8% in April. For the year, they are now 2% below the same period last year, a record year during which sales had jumped 11% from 2011. The good times appear to be over. Is the EU malaise heading east?

Europe stuck in recession: the Eurozone economy shrank 0.2% in the first quarter, from Q4, the sixth quarter of recession in a row, another glorious record. The 27-nation EU contracted 0.1%. Year over year, they’re down 1.0% and 0.7% respectively. Germany's economy inched up 0.1% in Q1, after having plunged 0.7% in Q4, thus barely avoiding the red stamp of recession. Both quarters combined, Germany is in the hole. The lousy performance in both quarters surprisingly surprised pundits. France is formally in a recession; its economy contracted 0.2% in Q1, third contraction in four quarters. Italy and Spain both shriveled 0.5%. Unperturbed, German stocks, while down a smidgen for the day so far, are still above their prior all-time intra-day high of July 2007. This will be seen as the greatest accomplishment of the central bank money-printing binge: separating (at least temporarily) stock markets from reality and allowing them to float in a dream world.

China's pile of foreign exchange grew by 294 billion yuan to 27.363 trillion yuan ($4.41 trillion) in April, according to the People's Bank of China, the fifth month in a row of increases. For the first four months of 2013, the monthly influx averaged 400 billion yuan, nine times the average in 2012. Earlier this month, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the top forex regulator, had threatened to crack down on foreign money flooding the country. China is where the hot money goes – on the bet that the yuan will continue to rise against the dollar which, through the arduous and heroic efforts of the Fed, will continue to lose value.

Nikkei jumps 2.29%, to 15,096, highest since December 28, 2007. If it keeps going like this, it will be above 40,000 soon. This thing has become a joke – even more so than the US stock markets. Japanese government bonds continue their descent, pushing yields up, with the 10-year JGB hitting 0.90% but then settled down at 0.85%. The yen skidded.

 

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Ex-leaders of consumer electronics: Sharp's huge loss is a sign of how Japanese powerhouses have lost the edge to Korean, US, and Chinese rivals. A doozy: ¥545 billion ($5.3 billion) in red ink, a record in its storied century-long history. A top exec reshuffle has been announced, but it won't fix the real issue that is bedeviling Sharp and other Japanese consumer electronics companies, once world leaders, now not even also-rans. Abenomics won't be able to cure that either. This isn't an issue of costs and exchange rates, but of innovation, products, and now increasingly brand (they squandered it).

China's white paper on human rights, helpfully issued in English so that foreigners like me can get their brains washed, starts out promisingly: "Since the arrival of the 21st century, the Chinese people have been making constant efforts in advancing human rights protection along the path of building socialism with Chinese characteristics under the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese government." Further into it, the paper clarifies priorities: "China has a population of over 1.3 billion. For such a populous country, it would be impossible to protect the people's rights and interests without first developing the economy to feed and clothe the people." Money before rights. But it also points out how the government has become much more transparent in many ways, which few people will dispute (text in full).

Inflation hits Japan: wholesale prices rose for 5th month in a row in April, by 0.3% from March, with the index at 101.4 (2010 prices = 100). Electricity, gas, water, lumber, and wood products jumped over 3%. Some of it was due to the weakening yen that made imported fuels and raw materials more expensive. How exactly higher prices would cure Japan’s economic ills remains a mystery, though it will give a stylish haircut to all those owning Japanese Government Bonds....

Japanese Government Bonds skid once again: yields rose, for the 10-year JGB to 0.85%, from 0.79% yesterday, from 0.69% on Friday, and from 0.315% on April 5, the day they went bonkers. While yields are still ultra-low, the rise has been relentless, not at all what the BOJ wants – and now there's also volatility, rare sight in the JGB market. Japanese institutions and individuals are buying foreign bonds with higher yields to diversify out of the yen that has been doomed by Abenomics to decline. If this turns into a massive dumping of yen, if the BOJ cannot keep it under control, the selloff might turn into a rout, and the BOJ and government-controlled institutions will be the only ones left buying. In sympathy, mortgage rates are creeping up, as are bank loans. The opposite of what Abenomics wants to accomplish. Free money is suddenly becoming more expensive. 

Click for Older Rumblings....

VIDEOS

Wolf Richter on Max Keiser's "On The Edge" 
"The Pauperization of America"

Wolf Richter on the Keiser Report
"Where the Money Goes to Die"

Clarke and Dawe: European Debt Crisis
Two favorite Australian Comedians

Clarke and Dawe: Quantitative Easing
Big industrial-strength printers, all facing the window

The Fastest Drive Ever Through San Francisco
Don't try to do this yourself
 

humanERROR - by "Frying Dutchman"
Powerful, lyrical appeal to the Japanese. Slams nuke industry, MSM, bureaucrats, and politicians.

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Friday
Nov302012

The Relentless Eurocratic Power Grab

“The euro has profound economic advantages and is the most powerful symbol of European integration,” said not some wild-eyed dude with a joint between his lips, slouching in a café in Amsterdam, but the “Final Report“ issued by the Future of Europe Group, composed of the foreign ministers of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Austria, Denmark, Portugal, and Luxembourg. It remains uncertain what they were smoking.

But they did fret about the future of the euro and the EU, their chef d’œuvre. To keep it glued and duct-taped together, they came up with a laundry list of recommendations concerning its governance. It included the vampire item that simply refuses to die, namely shifting sovereignty over national budgets to the European government.

To their credit—or was it just window dressing, given the uproar on the internet?—they also called for more “democratic legitimacy and accountability,” of which only trace elements are discernible in the EU government. One of the key items: “a directly elected Commission President.”

Then came the eurocrat response.

“If this is not going hand in hand with large powers for the Commission, then forget it,” said European Council President Herman Van Rompuy at a conference centered on that Final Report. It would give that top job “a huge legitimacy,” he said, but it would “organize the disappointment in advance.” Only by handing “large powers” to the Commission could a directly elected Commission President become functional.

Another step in the ongoing and ever so methodical power grab.

Just then, a 52-page draft report by the unelected European Commission President José Manuel Barroso bubbled to the surface—a continuation of his bureaucratic drive to create the United States of Europe come hell or high water.

To overcome “the crisis of confidence,” he called for “fast and deep” integration and envisioned a powerful European government. It would, for example, have the power to coordinate how Member States tax their citizens—with the unspoken goal to alleviate tax competition between countries, a recurrent complaint by high-tax countries against their lower-tax brethren. Even in the USA, the federal government doesn’t attempt to tell the states how to tax their residents. It would cause a revolt.

Barroso, building on his idea of a United States of Europe, also wants to give the Commission, his Commission, the power to veto the budgets of Member States. Imagine the White House vetoing California’s budget—OK, that budget should be vetoed because it's a sham, but it’s our sham, and we will deal with it or sink with it. White House interference would be a reason for secession.

He wants to endow that souped-up government with the ability to levy its own taxes, rather than be dependent on handouts that are determined during bitter budget negotiations by the 27 Member States. It would be a coup. It would give the European government the power to impose taxes on already overtaxed people—with little or no democratic limits.

And all that without a constitution. Because the people had voted it down by referendum [read.... Sacrificing The Will Of The People On The Altar of The Euro].

Meanwhile, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte was giving interviews left and right, to reject exactly what the eurocrats were trying to push through: a federal Europe. He believed in a Europe of national states that worked together closely.

Instead of all that federal razzmatazz, he demanded that Eurozone countries “stick to the commitments that they made when they introduced the currency.” Hence, deficits not to exceed 3% of GDP. And austerity. That would be “essential for the survival” of the euro, he said. And only that would make the euro “credible.” The goal should be to strengthen the euro “and attack the dollar as world currency.”

He had something for everybody. Including Greece: treaties should be tweaked, he said, to allow a country that doesn’t follow the rules to leave the Eurozone without also having to leave the EU, which is currently not possible. And haircuts for official sector creditors, such as the ECB, that are holding most of the Greek debt? Not a good idea, he said. Not only for legal reasons, but also out of principle. “That would send the wrong signal to other countries that have debts ... like America.”

“I cannot be disillusioned because I no longer have any illusions about Europe,” muttered Euro Group President Jean-Claude Juncker a while ago. He wasn’t the only one. “There are better alternatives to the bailout policies of Chancellor Merkel,” declared the man who’d run against her in 2013; alternatives that “protect taxpayers and don’t only benefit the banks.” Read...  “The Euro Will Blow Up Europe Instead Of Bringing It Together”.

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Reader Comments (5)

Yes, the Eurocrats are hoping to build a new "nation" via technocracy and crisis. Has ever there been a stupider way to try to forge a functioning political and economic entity? Even if they somehow get their people to go along for awhile because "TINA" (There Is No Alternative), they'll be jamming it it down everybody's throats. And the "internal" politics of such a nation will be brutal, as Germany particularly attempts to become the new nation's center of power, and massive economic dislocation unleashes unpredictable energies. The sectional tensions will be more complicated and more combustible than those that led to the American Civil War.

To reach the United States of Europe, the Eurocrats would have to bridge the crazy political chasms developing between the nations of Europe through unpopular treaties that would never be approved by any nation that allowed its citizens to vote on them. Then, they would have to finalize it all in some form of workable Constitution that supposedly had the assent of each nation. Can you imagine all of that happening in the next 10 years?

There are, unfortunately, two significant lessons to be learned from this debacle:

1. The euro was a horrible idea. No currency can function without a genuine sovereign with full political control over the currency area, redistribution mechanisms, etc. backing it.

2. Using the inevitable failure of the euro to force people unwillingly into a superstate was worse than a horrible idea. It was something closer to suicide by optimism.

I hope Europe can find a way to get off this train before it crashes, but I doubt it will happen. After all, breaking the Euro would only cause a crisis of about Lehman squared. The fall of the United States of Europe (or its preservation via iron fist) might decimate democracy itself.
November 30, 2012 | Unregistered Commenteremptyfull
The EU has moved stealthly in people's daily life and a lot of the Europeans donot like that at all.
For all these wild ideas of eg Barroso is no platform. Certainly not with the voters in general and in all 27 countries and as the EU is now constantly on the top of the agenda (and very negative) also with a lot of politicians (the ones that want to be reelected). And all 27 countries will have to agree.

Simply means that the UK issue should be settled first in the present set up with them it will not happen. And if in France or Holland a referendum would take place the outcome is nearly certain a: not more Europe.

Donot get nervous about the report. Some countries send not even their second man but a high civil servant to the meeting. That is how serious they take it.
December 1, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRik
Rik: I agree that the meeting itself is not to be taken too seriously. The reports however have more weight.

In the Eurozone, everything starts out small, and there is resistance, but it continues to be there, rather than go away, and at the next minor crisis, it snowballs into something bigger. The fiscal union treaty was one of those.

So all these zany ideas have to be taken seriously. They’re not going to happen today, but they’re also not going away. And gradually, they’re getting more real, and some of them will become reality.

Imho, introducing more democracy into the EU is a good thing. Giving that government more power, however, is a dubious goal. Europeans should be leery.

You mentioned “stealthy”- and that’s perhaps the best descriptor for the political processes in the EU I’ve heard in a while: it’s there, but you don’t see it unless you look really hard. In Germany, much of it is actually out in the open; in France, almost none is. Every country differs. But most people, even in Germany, don’t pay that much attention – hence the stealth.
December 1, 2012 | Registered CommenterWolf Richter
I doubt that except of the EZ you have to be that scared of powergraps. Several things are going on that all work against a further powegrap.
-It got into daily affairs of people (and they are told it is European you have to live with it we cannot change it) and people simply donot like that. In the same time it got even without the EZ crisis on the agenda of the man in the street.
-massive negative PR around mainly the Euro, but also around things like immigration from especially the Balkans and before that Poland and Co. People simply donot like to be associated with negativity and the EU is simply mainly negativity.
-local politicians start to oppose. Before it was convenient now it isnot anymore. For mainly 2 reasons. Voter pressure, what you see in Finland,Holland and France. Simply forcing existing parties to adjust or lose 10s% of the vote. Furthermore local politicans themselves get limited in their powers and they not like that.

The model of the EU is completely outdated. Before it worked into more Europe. Somebody proposed more Europe, compromise solution end up half of that (but still more Europe). It simply doesnot work that way anymore. UK eg says enough Europe is enough. And as all 27 have to agree there is simply no real basis for increasing powers. The model isnot working anymore as 'all agree and always a compromise' is not acceptable anymore for some. Which means basically everything is obstructed and the treaty needs major revision (different tiers possible and other ways to approve legislation), but there is also no platform for that.

PR of Barroso and Co is simply horrible. If you want something politically happening you want that guy to do the PR on the other side (image 2.5 of 10 (with 6.0 just ok but not more than that, GW Bush did extremely well compared to this). However as you indicate he acts like a non elected burocrat and looks Southern and dodgy to most in the North as well, so there it will be even lower than 2.5).
Europe needs a platform in the population so the voters allow their politicians to be pro Europe as well as be able to solve the running issues. They do nothing to create that that is their main weak point.

Euro might lead however to emergency measures as hardly anyone of the decisionmakers oversees the problem (may be with the exception of Monti and Draghi). Merkel imho simply doesnot oversee the whole thing. She doesnot have a proper realistic view of the endgame and how to get to a working structure. Just solving one problem at the lowest possible costs at he time and up to the next. Not prepared that Greece is in say 6-12 months becoming a huge budget issue in her own country (could well be just before the elections, bad timing). Not seeing that the rest of the PIIGS will likley turn Greek and make any rescue totally unaffordable.
So a lot can be expected. But clearly the decisionmakers are scared. For the thing falling apart and for their own voters. And in the process making things worse. Greece leaving was not really an issue. but if you keep shouting nobody is left behind and if Greece goes they will think we let the others fall as well and if the Euro goes Europe is a goner. You put things on the agenda that were not there. And now a lot of people see dropping Greece as a clear sign of less support for the other PIIGS. They have created their own monster and now it will eat them.
Under pressure and without proper knowledge and technical skills and scared so everything can happen there.
December 2, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRik
if you want to compare Europe to a former political construction, don't use soviet union, just look at Austria-Hungary. Consider the words of Mark Twain;

The Austro-Hungarian Monarchy is the patchwork quilt, the Midway Plaisance, the national chain-gang of Europe; a state that is not a nation but a collection of nations, some with national memories and aspirations and others without, some occupying distinct provinces almost purely their own, and others mixed with alien races, but each with a different language, and each mostly holding the others foreigners as much as if the link of a common government did not exist. Only one of its races even now comprises so much as one-fourth of the whole, and not another so much as one-sixth; and each has remained for ages as unchanged in isolation, however mingled together in locality, as globules of oil in water. There is nothing else in the modern world that is nearly like it, though there have been plenty in past ages; it seems unreal and impossible even though we know it is true; it violates all our feeling as to what a country should be in order to have a right to exist; and it seems as though it was too ramshackle to go on holding together any length of time. Yet it has survived, much in its present shape, two centuries of storms that have swept perfectly unified countries from existence and others that have brought it to the verge of ruin, has survived formidable European coalitions to dismember it, and has steadily gained force after each; forever changing in its exact make-up, losing in the West but gaining in the East, the changes leave the structure as firm as ever, like the dropping off and adding on of logs in a raft, its mechanical union of pieces showing all the vitality of genuine national life.

That seems to confirm and justify the prevalent Austrian faith that in this confusion of unrelated and irreconcilable elements, this condition of incurable disunion, there is strength -- for the government. Nearly every day some one explains to me that a revolution would not succeed here. "It couldn't, you know. Broadly speaking, all the nations in the empire hate the government -- but they all hate each other, too, and with devoted and enthusiastic bitterness; no two of them can combine; the nation that rises must rise alone; then the others would joyfully join the government against her, and she would have just a fIy's chance against a combination of spiders. This government is entirely independent. It can go its own road, and do as it pleases; it has nothing to fear. In countries like England and America, where there is one tongue and the public interests are common, the government must take account of public opinion; but in Austria-Hungary there are nineteen public opinions -- one for each state. No -- two or three for each state, since there are two or three nationalities in each. A government cannot satisfy all these public opinions; it can only go through the motions of trying. This government does that. It goes through the motions, and they do not succeed; but that does not worry the government much."

and later:

I must take passing notice of another point in the government's measures for maintaining tranquillity. Everybody says it does not like to see any individual attain to commanding influence in the country, since such a man can become a disturber and an inconvenience. "We have as much talent as the other nations," says the citizen, resignedly, and without bitterness, "but for the sake of the general good of the country we are discouraged from making it overconspicuous; and not only discouraged, but tactfully and skillfully prevented from doing it, if we show too much persistence. Consequently we have no renowned men; in centuries we have seldom produced one -- that is, seldom allowed one to produce himself. We can say today what no other nation of first importance in the family of Christian civilizations can say: that there exists no Austrian who has made an enduring name for himself which is familiar all around the globe."

Sound familiar when compared with the gollums that are the "leaders" of Europe ? (Barroso, von Rumpoy, etc.)
December 7, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterYannick C.

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