DEBTOR NATION

RUMBLINGS FROM THE PIT

Monday, May 20, 2013

“Every 10 years or so, banks make some horrible mistake and it usually starts with easy money,” said Mike Pinto, vice-chairman of M&T Bank, a regional US bank. “We are worried about the competitive atmosphere. It creates the temptation to do silly things.” He was talking about the credit bubble. US banks made $1.55 trillion in business loans through April, up 10% from last year; banks are falling all over each other trying to goose their profits by making risky loans. US corporations have also sold a record amount of bonds at record low yields and with historically low protections for investors. So now banks are loading up their balance sheets with business loans that will come to haunt them. But no problem. It will just be part of the next financial crisis that will give the eager Fed another opportunity to hand trillions to TBTF bankers to bail them out.

UK wages propaganda war against Scotland, which will hold an inconvenient independence referendum in September 2014. A new report by the UK Treasury, the third in the series, claims that the Scottish banking sector – composed of two large banks, Bank of Scotland and Royal Bank of Scotland, plus smaller ones – would put an independent Scotland at risk. Its assets would be 1250% of Scottish GDP, while the Cypriot banking sector, which brought down Cyprus, was 700% of GDP, the report said ominously. For the UK overall, banking assets are 492% of GDP, also very high. But the UK has “credibility” in the markets to manage that risk, something Scotland would lack. A "feeble attempt to undermine confidence in Scotland's ability to be a successful independent country," retorted Scotland's Finance Secretary John Swinney. "The Treasury, true to form, will outline what is in its own best interests, not what is in the best economic interests of the people of Scotland." He called these assertions misleading; "In terms of share of GDP, in fact, financial services are actually smaller for Scotland at 8.3% than the UK at 9.6%. So if the argument is about risk, then the risk is with the UK," he said.

Now Germany has a real reason to exit the euro: Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein wants it to stay! A bad sign. In an interview with the Welt, he said Germany had profited from the euro the most – from his point of view, “Germany” is “Germany Inc.” But real wages for working Germans have declined since the introduction of the euro, and workers have had a hard time, while wages in Greece, Spain, and other countries have shot up. Though German workers now have jobs, unlike people in Spain and Greece, they earn less than they used to in real terms. For that privilege, German taxpayers (not Germany Inc.) must pay a price, he said, namely bailing out banks and speculators who hold the crappy debt of periphery countries. He predicted utter economic mayhem for Germany if it left the euro. No, German taxpayers will have to bail out weaker countries, he said. And he raved about the "political project" behind the euro, the ultimately total integration of Europe (and of course, he defended TBTF banks, which were more secure, he said, than smaller ones). My question: is Goldman now seriously long the euro?

 

Weekend, May 18 - 19, 2013

Sales skid at S&P 500 companies: 458 companies of the 500 in the index have reported their Q1 results so far: earnings were up a measly 3.4% year-over-year, but sales fell 0.2%. Not exactly the foundation for the gigantic undying stock market rally that has plowed through whatever economic and corporate bad news with nary a twitch. When will this separation of reality from stock prices end? Someday, one way or the other! He who can pinpoint that day will make a lot of money.

Central bank success story: The global market for luxury goods grew 38.6% in three years. From $200 billion in 2009, luxury goods sales jumped 13% in 2010, 11% in 2011, and 10% in 2012, to end up at $275 billion. Despite the Eurozone debt crisis and austerity, despite the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in 2011... no matter what happened in those three years, luxury goods boomed, sez the the just released "Worldwide Luxury Markets Monitor," by Bain & Company for Fondazione Altagamma (PDF). “Absolute luxury items (high-end products with no logo, highest quality materials, and exquisite craftsmanship) lead the way,” the report reassured us, but there were some losers, including “watch consumption” which crashed in China. The report confirmed what we’ve seen everywhere: when central banks hand out trillions to their cronies, it doesn’t do much for the real economy as a whole, nor for employment, but it does one heck of a job at the very top of the pyramid.

"Threat of Default": US hits debt limit on Saturday, but by using a slew of shuffle maneuvers, shell games, tricks, and devices, the US won't actually run out of money until "after Labor Day," Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew told Congress in a letter. In his previous statement, the US would be "okay until Labor Day." Today, he was more frantic. He begged Congress to get its act together and do something "sooner rather than later" to “remove the threat of default.” In its infinite wisdom, Congress had suspended the debt limit till May 18, rather than dealing with it. The debt, though still over the limit, declined in April and early May; tax extractions were fattened by asset bubbles. But since May 10, the debt has once again been rising.

 

Friday, May 17, 2013

US Consumers haven’t felt this good since July 2007, just before all heck broke loose. An "encouraging sign," Reuters sez. For short sellers? The preliminary results of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index jumped to 83.7 in May from 76.4 in April. Big part of the reason: households in the upper third of the income bracket felt flush from the ballooning stock market – the wealth effect. The Fed giveth.... They were able to brush off the payroll tax increase, which Wal-Mart shoppers, as we’ve seen, had a harder time brushing off. The Consumer Expectations index rose to 74.8 from 67.8. And the Current Economic Conditions index leaped to 97.5 from 89.9, the highest since October 2007, a month before the stock markets began to swoon. Impeccable timing, the hallmark of consumers.

Car sales in the EU crept up 1.7% in April, from a horrible April last year. The fact that the parade of ever worsening numbers has finally stopped, at least for a moment, was greeted with a huge sigh of relief. The details of the report aren’t that rosy: sales in the UK, now the second largest market after Germany, jumped 14.8%. Without the UK, sales for the rest of the EU actually dropped 0.46%. It wasn't exactly a smooth trend across the member states: Greece finally seems to have hit bottom, and sales increased 20.9%; in Denmark, they jumped 30.7% and in Finland 142.6%; but they crashed 26% in the Netherlands and 51.9% in Cyprus; they rose 3.8% in Germany but dropped 5.3% in France.

Deafening US media hype: Japan Core Machinery Orders jumped 14.2% in March, seasonally adjusted, from February. The eternal money-printing and fiscal-stimulus apologists dragged it out as proof that Abenomics is working massively. Alas, these are highly volatile big-ticket items, though “core” orders exclude container ships, nuclear reactors, etc., which are even more volatile. To iron out the volatility, the Cabinet Office also offers quarterly numbers. Soooo, core orders in the first quarter of 2013 were actually 4.8% lower than in the first quarter of 2012, when Noda was prime minister. Kampai!

The Japanese take care of their college grads: 93.9% of all those who graduated on March 31, the end of the academic year, had jobs by April 1, the beginning of the business year. This was the second year in a row that the percentage increased, so it’s NOT related to Abenomics, please! College recruitment, like so many things in Japan, is a highly structured process with the idea to get pretty much everyone squared away before the end of the academic year. But those who miss this entry into Japan Inc. have the greatest difficulty getting through the door later. The system is unforgiving punitive to those who don’t toe the line.

About that secret inflation in Argentina: famously, no one is allowed to accurately track or discuss inflation, but all the whisper numbers floating around peg it at over 20% annually. Now confirmation has come from official sources: wage negotiations between unions and the government of President Cristina Fernández Kirchner. Unions are her base. In fact, she personally met with the leaders of six unions that represent about 2 million workers, or 40% of all workers covered by wage negotiations, and made a deal, similar to the deals she’d made with Railway and Bus Drivers’ unions. The agreed-upon wage increases this year to keep the purchasing power of her voters intact? The closest estimate to official CPI that Argentina has? 24%!

 

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Last time French-made cars were sold is the US? 1980? Long time ago. But... French-made models of the Toyota Yaris are coming to the US, Canada, and Mexico, apparently to keep the plant in Onnaing, near Valenciennes, busy. Car sales in Europe have been catastrophic, and plant shutdowns and layoffs are hard to do, especially in France where even thinking about it causes a huge political ruckus. In 2012, 182,841 Yaris were sold in Europe, accounting for 22% of Toyota's total European sales - a highly successful model at the low end of the lineup. North America will get US versions, not EU versions. So no diesels.

Plunging price of gasoline shaves 0.4% from Consumer Price Index in April. Total energy prices dropped 4.3%, with gasoline down 8.1%. We’ll remember those days fondly because that cheap gasoline is now history; prices have been climbing in May! Food prices rose 0.2%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%. For the 12-month period, CPI is up 1.1% and core CPI 1.7%. The Fed might complain that this is below target; but it’s still inflation, and it still whittles down the value of your and my dollars, and everything denominated in them, and it’s still higher than the interest that banks pay on most deposits and CDs, though it’s better than 4.3%, as we had some months in 2011.

Another blow to US manufacturing: Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey – for manufacturing in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware – dropped into the negative, to -5.2 in May, from 1.3 in April (below zero = decline). The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing survey, reported yesterday (below), had also pointed at a contraction. Ominous: new orders dropped to -7.9, the worst since June last year, from -1 in April; the Workweek Index dropped to -12.4, and the Employment Index dropped to -8.7. Manufacturing is only a small part of the US economy, and this region is a small part of the US, so we’re not going to panic just yet...

US Housing Bubble confirmed: Heard an ad on the radio on how to get rich quick by flipping houses – and we’ll show you how. It conveniently offered an 800-number. Something or other was free.... but keep your credit card handy. These kinds of things usually appear late in a bubble.

Death penalty for financial fraud in China. A court in Wenzhou slapped a local, 39-year-old gal, former general manager of Wenzhou Xinfu Investment Consulting Co., with the maximum penalty available, death, for having illegally raised funds for investments starting in 2007. Everything worked fine until October 2011, when her scheme collapsed and she ended up defaulting on a 428 million yuan loan ($69.6 million). Leaves open the question if they’d slap the same penalty on TBTF bank CEOs every time their banks need a bailout. A bit draconian maybe, but something the US might want to consider as well, after not having prosecuted anyone responsible for the financial crisis and for the Fed’s bailouts that followed, though they did hound, as in China, small-scale crooks like Bernie Madoff.

Bad loans at Chinese commercial banks swelled by 6.8% in the first quarter, to 526.5 billion yuan ($85.6 billion), the sixth consecutive quarter of increases, raising the non-performing loan ratio to 0.96%. And NPLs are expected to rise further. One of the many elements in a boundless debt-fueled scheme that will eventually, like the micro-case above, unravel.

The Japanese Diet rubber-stamped the ¥92.6 trillion ($926 billion) budget for fiscal 2013, which started April 1. A breath-taking ¥43 trillion ($425 billion) will have to be borrowed to make ends meet - that's 46.4% of the total outlays! But no problem. Abenomics will get Japan out of its fiscal quagmire, one way or the other, by printing money. Government spending on public works – welfare spending for Japan Inc. – will rise to ¥5.3 trillion. In a show of rare fiscal discipline, welfare spending for the poor will be cut by ¥67 billion. Priorities of Abenomics are becoming clear.

Japanese GDP growth less than a year ago! The economy grew 0.9% in the first quarter 2013 from Q4 last year, or a 3.5% annual rate. Private demand was up some, with investment in housing being fairly strong, but corporate investment lackluster. Public demand – government spending and investment, including boondoggles – jumped, as promised by Abenomics. Exports rose, and so did imports, but not as much. All seasonally adjusted. Great? Give credit to Abenomics for that 0.9% growth in GDP? Because it was the fastest growth since... oops, well, since the first quarter of 2012, when the economy grew 1.3%. Abenomics can't even keep up with Noda's maligned era.

 

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Megabanks "are NOT too big to jail," claimed Attorney General Eric Holder today in a heroic about-face at a House Judiciary hearing, after he'd explained to the Senate Judiciary Committee in early March why exactly they were indeed too big to jail. The Justice Department has not prosecuted any megabanks despite their shenanigans leading up to the Financial Crisis and continuing to this day. A debacle I wrote about.... 'Regulatory Capture' Emasculated The Regulators Of Megabanks.

French purchasing power plunges 1.5% per capita, and 0.9% for all households together in 2012 (difference due to population growth), the worst performance since 1984. Combination of: disposable income creeping up only 0.9%, and prices rising 1.9%. Ah yes, the many benefits of "moderate" or even "below-target" inflation.

Tough day for US manufacturing: industrial production dropped 0.5% in April, after increasing in February and March; year-over-year, it's up only 1.9%. Within it, manufacturing fell 0.4%; fingers point at motor vehicles and parts, down 1.3%. Capacity utilization fell 0.5% to 77.8%, and is 2.4 percentage points below long-term average. Add to that: the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey for May dipped into the red (-1.43, from 3.05 in April). Employment sub-indices were mixed, with number of employees up slightly, but hours worked down sharply. Darkest cloud: new orders were negative. Executive optimism for the next six months declined, second month in a row. Not an exemplary picture of a growing economy.

"My question is, who is going to jail?" wondered House Speaker John Boehner about the IRS scandal. So why didn't he and other Republicans ask that question after the financial crisis, the largest scandal in the US ever?

Swooning energy prices, particularly gasoline, pushed down wholesale prices by 0.7% in April, seasonally adjusted. Food prices also dropped, a godsend for those of us who like to eat, with veggies and meat down the most. Without food and energy, which are highly volatile, the core Producer Price Index rose 0.1%. For the 12-month period, the unadjusted PPI is up a scant 0.6%. If they could just keep it that way!

Warning shot: Russian car sales plunged 8% in April. For the year, they are now 2% below the same period last year, a record year during which sales had jumped 11% from 2011. The good times appear to be over. Is the EU malaise heading east?

Europe stuck in recession: the Eurozone economy shrank 0.2% in the first quarter, from Q4, the sixth quarter of recession in a row, another glorious record. The 27-nation EU contracted 0.1%. Year over year, they’re down 1.0% and 0.7% respectively. Germany's economy inched up 0.1% in Q1, after having plunged 0.7% in Q4, thus barely avoiding the red stamp of recession. Both quarters combined, Germany is in the hole. The lousy performance in both quarters surprisingly surprised pundits. France is formally in a recession; its economy contracted 0.2% in Q1, third contraction in four quarters. Italy and Spain both shriveled 0.5%. Unperturbed, German stocks, while down a smidgen for the day so far, are still above their prior all-time intra-day high of July 2007. This will be seen as the greatest accomplishment of the central bank money-printing binge: separating (at least temporarily) stock markets from reality and allowing them to float in a dream world.

China's pile of foreign exchange grew by 294 billion yuan to 27.363 trillion yuan ($4.41 trillion) in April, according to the People's Bank of China, the fifth month in a row of increases. For the first four months of 2013, the monthly influx averaged 400 billion yuan, nine times the average in 2012. Earlier this month, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the top forex regulator, had threatened to crack down on foreign money flooding the country. China is where the hot money goes – on the bet that the yuan will continue to rise against the dollar which, through the arduous and heroic efforts of the Fed, will continue to lose value.

Nikkei jumps 2.29%, to 15,096, highest since December 28, 2007. If it keeps going like this, it will be above 40,000 soon. This thing has become a joke – even more so than the US stock markets. Japanese government bonds continue their descent, pushing yields up, with the 10-year JGB hitting 0.90% but then settled down at 0.85%. The yen skidded.

 

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Ex-leaders of consumer electronics: Sharp's huge loss is a sign of how Japanese powerhouses have lost the edge to Korean, US, and Chinese rivals. A doozy: ¥545 billion ($5.3 billion) in red ink, a record in its storied century-long history. A top exec reshuffle has been announced, but it won't fix the real issue that is bedeviling Sharp and other Japanese consumer electronics companies, once world leaders, now not even also-rans. Abenomics won't be able to cure that either. This isn't an issue of costs and exchange rates, but of innovation, products, and now increasingly brand (they squandered it).

China's white paper on human rights, helpfully issued in English so that foreigners like me can get their brains washed, starts out promisingly: "Since the arrival of the 21st century, the Chinese people have been making constant efforts in advancing human rights protection along the path of building socialism with Chinese characteristics under the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese government." Further into it, the paper clarifies priorities: "China has a population of over 1.3 billion. For such a populous country, it would be impossible to protect the people's rights and interests without first developing the economy to feed and clothe the people." Money before rights. But it also points out how the government has become much more transparent in many ways, which few people will dispute (text in full).

Inflation hits Japan: wholesale prices rose for 5th month in a row in April, by 0.3% from March, with the index at 101.4 (2010 prices = 100). Electricity, gas, water, lumber, and wood products jumped over 3%. Some of it was due to the weakening yen that made imported fuels and raw materials more expensive. How exactly higher prices would cure Japan’s economic ills remains a mystery, though it will give a stylish haircut to all those owning Japanese Government Bonds....

Japanese Government Bonds skid once again: yields rose, for the 10-year JGB to 0.85%, from 0.79% yesterday, from 0.69% on Friday, and from 0.315% on April 5, the day they went bonkers. While yields are still ultra-low, the rise has been relentless, not at all what the BOJ wants – and now there's also volatility, rare sight in the JGB market. Japanese institutions and individuals are buying foreign bonds with higher yields to diversify out of the yen that has been doomed by Abenomics to decline. If this turns into a massive dumping of yen, if the BOJ cannot keep it under control, the selloff might turn into a rout, and the BOJ and government-controlled institutions will be the only ones left buying. In sympathy, mortgage rates are creeping up, as are bank loans. The opposite of what Abenomics wants to accomplish. Free money is suddenly becoming more expensive. 

Click for Older Rumblings....

VIDEOS

Wolf Richter on Max Keiser's "On The Edge" 
"The Pauperization of America"

Wolf Richter on the Keiser Report
"Where the Money Goes to Die"

Clarke and Dawe: European Debt Crisis
Two favorite Australian Comedians

Clarke and Dawe: Quantitative Easing
Big industrial-strength printers, all facing the window

The Fastest Drive Ever Through San Francisco
Don't try to do this yourself
 

humanERROR - by "Frying Dutchman"
Powerful, lyrical appeal to the Japanese. Slams nuke industry, MSM, bureaucrats, and politicians.

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Tuesday
Nov062012

The Art Of Siphoning Off EU Money

The European Union has been pursuing a dream, and in doing so, it has created a ballooning superstructure of governance manned by 41,000 bureaucrats and mostly unelected politicians. In 2011, they spent €129 billion that had been obtained from member states and their taxpayers. But now, the European Court of Auditors released its audit report for that year—a damning document that outlines how up to 4.8% of the EU budget had seeped through the cracks without ever reaching its target.

Already, the EU is under fire. As member governments are tightening the belts of their people to get deficits under control, and as austerity measures are tearing into healthcare benefits, wages, pensions, and safety nets, and as living standards are being hammered to smithereens, the EU government demands another budget increase.

It’s going to be quite a sight when the 27 member states have to sit down around the negotiating table on November 22 and 23 to cobble together a budget compromise for the next seven years. Some of them want the budget to be cut, and UK Prime Minister David Cameron, who has to quell a conservative rebellion in the House of Commons, threatened to veto the budget if it isn’t. France threatened with a veto, but in the opposite direction: it wants its beloved agricultural subsidies to survive intact. And Denmark threatened with a veto if it doesn’t get a juicy rebate.

So the audit report came in the nick of time. It concluded that, overall, payments were “materially affected” by error and that supervisory and control systems for payments were only “partially effective.” The numbers were stunning: 44% of all transactions were “affected by material error,” and anywhere from 3.0% to 4.8% of the entire budget was unaccounted for, with 3.9% being the “most likely error rate” (MLE).

The worst offender in percentage terms was the policy group, Rural Development, Environment, Fisheries, and Health, which spent €13.8 billion. A cool 7.7% of it dissipated into the atmosphere.

The largest policy group, the Agricultural Guarantee Fund, handed out €43.8 billion in subsidies to farmers and landowners and lost track of 2.9% of it.

Regional Policy, Energy, and Transport, the second largest policy group, spent €33.4 billion, and a blistering 6.0% remained unaccounted for.

Research and Other Internal Policies spent €10.6 billion, of which 3.0% disappeared along the way.

Employment and Social Affairs spent €10.1 billion, with 2.2% not reaching its target.

These policy groups with their deficient controls and “material errors” spent 87.6% of the EU budget. The accounts of the rest of the policy groups, responsible for 12.4% of the outlays, were deemed “free from material error.”  

There were also problems on the revenue side. Though much of the revenue was collected with an iron fist from member states, there were other sources, such as “Fines and Penalties” imposed on companies. The rules stipulate that the European Commission has to “enforce the recovery of amounts receivable by any available means.” But the Court found that in 57% of the cases that were in arrears, the Commission had been lackadaisical in its collection efforts.

In its rebuttal, the Commission claimed that enforcing recovery “at any price could have irreparable consequences and destroy or make bankrupt companies that are subject to fines.” And so it prefers “negotiating with the companies.” Companies prefer that too—negotiating being cheaper than paying. But are 57% of the companies that have to pay fines really this close to the edge that the fines would kick them over it? Or are the fines so harsh, and the rules they’re trying to enforce so intrusive, that the Commission doesn’t want to enforce them? Or is it just bureaucratic oversight?

The unelected but powerful Commission, which is ultimately responsible for the implementation of the EU budget, knows how to defend itself. It was the Court’s 18th annual report in a row that criticized the Commission for its shortcomings in controlling the money flows. With its bland jargon, the Court pointed at the infamous black holes where billions sink from view every year without trace—because entities across the continent have perfected the art of siphoning off the money. The audit results for 2011 were worse than 2010 when 36% of all transactions were “affected by material error,” and when 3.7% of the moneys disappeared along the way. However, some years were much worse. In 2006 for example, 7% of the EU budget seeped through the cracks.

In another act of impeccable timing, a “secret” report by the German version of the CIA, the Bundesnachrichtendienst, bubbled to the surface, asserting that the bailout of Cyprus would use money from taxpayers in other countries to bail out mostly rich Russians who have over the years deposited their “black money” in Cypriot banks that are now collapsing. Read....  The Bailout Of Russian “Black Money” In Cyprus.

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Reader Comments (10)

Several problems come together.
1. You cannot demand for more money if your administrative organisation is like this. The UK will bring this up and rightly so and you already start with a handicap in the budget negotiations.
2. The EU institutions (after the set up was changed with Lisbon) are mainly busy with giving themselves a profile. They are very unsuccessful in that. First of all the people who have to do that are very weak. Obama is a bag of hot air, but nobody can deny he has great presentation skills. Monti looks like a dusty retired college professor but it is clear that he knows what he is talking about. The EU is over the whole line the worst of both worlds in this respect. They look crap and havenot got a clue what they are talking about (dealing with the subject matter which is supposed to be their specialism).
Made even worse because Southern and Eastern and Western requirements are pretty different from each other.
Commission: Barroso, a guy that never would be elected up North, simply looks like a Berlusconi light (with an even bigger ego (and not backed up by brains)). Havenot got a clue how the population up North ticks. Also not really interested in the populations but more in getting politicians behind him. Plus a huge gap between his real skills and the skills he thinks he has.
Rompuy: Charisma of a wet rag as somebody summarised it.
Foreign policy:the Ashton woman (generally accepted as a complete disaster).
EP: bunch of clowns taking all the wrong battles (like now on a woman in the ECB, you donot start a longer term issue when you up to your neck in the manure and sinking).
Overall: arrogance (not backed up by skills and it shows) of which a lot of the population simply has enough.
3. Governance. Basically on things like corruption the South is in a completely different league than the North. North is usually worldclass, while the South (and often the East) is semi-African. The whole EU is a bit between the 2, plus the start up of new things clearly caused delays in proper organising a new set up. Making the mess even bigger.You cannot get the Northern voter so far to transfer more money in a time of severe austerity to a governing body like that.
Reasons why they kept the coverage of audit problems low key. However at the moment the North's governments are under pressure lead by the UK and they bring up the issue and put it in the papers. Same with he audit departments, people there are pretty frustrated and see now a possibility for change.
4. Overall it is simply having no idea how to market the EU. Basically the main markets now are the North (they come up with most of the cash and have to do that even more). You should focuss your efforts there. With people the average Northener accepts. No Berlusconi lights (Barroso) or wet rags (Rompuy) or walking disasters (Ashton) and a bit humility. Plus do the things that Northeners appreciate (like good governance), things have to move that direction anyway if it wants to be sustainable (big inefficient governments look simply unaffordable, like in the South now).
5. Basic problems when you give general direction and do say annual supervision the EU set up works. You simply got the time to do things. And if there are bumps in the road you have the time to clean things up. When like basically with Lisbon and the Euro you move to day-to-day life (and very important parts thereof) you need another management structure. And you donot have the time to adjust the structure when you get into problems.
That is the rootcause of the mess. Plus with huge conflicts of interest (in case of problems like with the Euro now) it will as it shows be nearly impossible to change things (as it is clear from the start who should pick up the bill. Not for good and for bad for both, but for good of the South and bad of the North from the start).
Difficult to see how they will straighten this one out. The problems are of the size that they are referendum or election material (take a decade or so, Tns involved, daily negative headlines) and the population in several countries simply donot like what is happening at all.
6. People generally like to stay away from negativity. This could be such an issue. The UK was the first. UK politics simply could not hold its population in check. The genie is out of the bottle there. Basically only on pubicity as it is not an Euro member costs are marginal. Other countries might be traditionally more EU positive, however there is still a long way to go plus these countries will be presented the bill (and a big one). Now all nearly went over ECB and via guarantees that are not seen as an expenditure. When permanent transfers are necessary or haircuts (budget stuff) require cuts on local entitlements that is likely to change.
November 6, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRik
All true. The hatred on the ground for "Brussels" is intense, all over Europe.

If you're in the USA ... you have Washington that is pure big and evil. Imagine if, further, al of "Washington" was some strange foreigners that don't even speak your language, and are not even comic-elected....if you can really picture that you can picture the hatred of "Brussels."

Every normal person in every country in Europe despises "Brussles", even more seethingly than Americans despise "Washington." But then, you can't beat bureaucrats - it will never happen. Every functionary, bureaucrat, freeloader and hanger-on in Europe loves and feeds "Brussels" - just as the same happens in the US for "Washington".

The only saving grave (for now) in Europe is that "Brussels" is still a fraction of the size of "Washington" - "Brussels" spends, what, 100th, 1000th, of what "Washington" spends.

"Brussels" will simply grow endlessly until it's as hyper-bloated and ultra-evil as "Washington."

But that's just a matter of time. It's impossible to stop societal leech.
November 7, 2012 | Unregistered Commenterfatster
What exactly is being said here? There seems to be a consensus that "bureaucracy" in particular and "government" in general are to blame for the problems we have. It is certainly true that we live in an era of unparalleled technological and productive power and yet we remain unable to develop an economic system that benefits more than a minority and that is not subject to catastrophic failures. We have been unable to organise a world without poverty for huge numbers of people at a time of unprecedented wealth. Even the richest nation has millions in poverty.What is also true is that we have lived through a long era when the dominant ideology has been to dis-empower "big government" and to deregulate, in the belief that some kind of "natural" free market system will evolve in the absence of government constraints and all will be well. That experiment does not seem to me to have worked.
There are also clearly environmental constraints to unregulated growth as a model for human well being. So perhaps it is possible that bureaucracies that develop policy for organised ways forward, rather than a free pursuit of greater ill distributed "wealth", are not such a bad thing. I think it is very unlikely that if we are simply free to seek our individual dreams and hopes for the good life the good times will roll. Really, is that likely in a massively complex situation of human development evidently in crisis? Is the solution for us to all go our own ways? Quite what is being said here? Perhaps the pursuit of narrowly defined wealth rather than the pursuit of an organised society is the real problem. We are, after all , social creatures (I mean in terms of evolutionary biology). We are co operative as a species, not competitive.
November 7, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRoger Yates
I get what the auhtour is saying Mr Yates, your drivel is just wishy washy fasism, do what we say or your not part of the system of everyone so can just be put in a corner with a loner hat on. Their was a leader of Germany that thought that way as-well.
November 7, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterShevva
@Shewa
Fascist is the correct spelling.
You're ( you are ) not your ( belonging to you )
There was, not their was. Their means belonging to them.
November 7, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRoger Yates
@Fatster
There is a huge difference between Washington and Brussels.
While the US is difficult to imagine without Washington (well at least a capital), Europe without Brussels is a real possibility. Especially some countries saying goodbye to the EU is a real possibility. Or cutting it back to a Common market again (an organisation iso a super-country).
The EU is in a Catch22 now. It got that far into becoming a real 4th (mostly) layer of government, but it doesnot have the legal and political structure to make it work. It looks to have gone too far and in very dangerous water for them. They have created a (or better carry a huge part of the responsability for the ) mess, while they need most likley a lot of citizen/voter approval (via elections and/or referenda) to make it work. While huge parts of the population simply doesnot trust them, donot want more government, do not like a big Europe and certainly donot like to pay big time for it. In other words if big Europe comes to the voter it could be a real problem (and as I said it will have to go to the voter may be not everywhere but in several countries, without a doubt). Made even more complicated by the fact that they basically need all countries to agree (which is a lot of approval).
Just ask yourself would you want to get further into a club that has bad headlines nearly every day for the last 3 years and for the decade to come. No, unless you cannot avoid it. Well that should all those governments try to do (but a lot of them seem to have given up before it started as it would not work).

The good point is that the EU is very cheap for a government. But realise that
a) most people simply after say 10 millon simply move to very big whether it is 20 million or 20 Trillion, they simply do not grasp it; and
b) the amounts involved for Europe (with a lot of mediacoverage of massive waist) are still equal or higher than thse for some pretty unpopular cuts taking place at the moment.
November 8, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRik
@Yates
'We have been unable to organise a world without poverty for huge numbers of people at a time of unprecedented wealth.'

UN goal of halving the poverty (number of people living on less than $1.25 a day) targeted to happen in 2015 was reached already in 2011. Media didn't report it because apparently the goal was reached 'ideologically impure' way, through capitalism.

'What is also true is that we have lived through a long era when the dominant ideology has been to dis-empower "big government" and to deregulate, in the belief that some kind of "natural" free market system will evolve in the absence of government constraints...and all will be well. That experiment does not seem to me to have worked.'

Experiment have done wonders in the developing world but it hasn't been in effect in the US or in Europe. The US federal covernment has been expanding it's budget and regulatory powers 80 years in a row. Development with the EU has been similar but with accelerated pace due to lack of legality or democratic mandate from the people. EU elites have trampled referendum's and national sovereignty of the peoples of Europe under their feet.

'We are, after all , social creatures (I mean in terms of evolutionary biology). We are co operative as a species, not competitive.'

Is slavery under tyrannical regime your concept of co-operation?
November 8, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRami Eskola
The main difference between Brussels and Washington is that Washington believes it has the right to make war where it chooses and Brussels believes it has the right to legislate for olive and cabbage production and then have a slap up dinner in an expensive restaurant.
The EU is a GOOD THING. When I was born the entire continent's peoples were busy murdering one another. Now we live in one another's cities and moan about each other down the pub.
The problem is that the EU is run by the wrong people. Really by Wall Street and the alumni of Goldman Sachs. In other words we are occupied by the American Empire. Tiny Tim (Geitner) pops over to tell us what to do. It does not seem very likely to me that a strong EU and Euro is in America's best interests long term. Europe has been subverted politically by American interests and is actually occupied by US troops. I don't notice French and British bases on US soil.
All this endless stereotyped political debate about "privatization" and "socialism" and "bureaurocracy" and "Big Government" is a Pavlovian response triggered by The Ayn Rand Corporation Department of Political Indoctrination ("Woof! Woof!). When I look in their eyes I see CNN where the pupils used to be.
The important question for Europeans is how to get the hijackers off the ship before they sink it.
November 8, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRoger Yates
Great discussion. Thanks everybody.

I particularly like the various distinctions and similarities between Brussels and Washington. I should make a list of them and publish it. Come to think of it, if I get enough good ones, I'll do it.... With your permission (if you don't want me to, or if don't want me to attribute it to the name you used here, let me know).
November 8, 2012 | Registered CommenterWolf Richter
@Rami Eskola I recommend a few months on $ 1.30 a day, Rami, to cure your enthusiasm for the economic betterment of the world's masses.
In what sense is "Capitalism" responsible for these improvements? Is this correlation or causality? Maybe Capitalism is responsible for the safe rising of the sun. There is nowhere on this planet that we have Capitalism, least of all in the US. States intervene in markets in a massive way to prop up tyrannical power structures and class interests.
I agree with you about the present Wall Street Elite control of the EU and its undemocratic invasion of states like Greece.
If you want to live in a place with small government and low regulation on your $ 1.30 a day might I recommend a nice little hacienda 100 miles from Mogadishu, or a cottage in Eastern Congo, or perhaps a residency in Liberia.........not a lot of Government there, opportunities abound, arms shipments, diamonds, rear earth minerals, one would soon be a true Capitalist success story. Roughly the US business model is it not?
November 8, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRoger Yates

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