DEBTOR NATION

RUMBLINGS FROM THE PIT

"Threat of Default": US hits debt limit on Saturday, but by using a slew of shuffle maneuvers, shell games, tricks, and devices, the US won't actually run out of money until "after Labor Day," Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew told Congress in a letter. In his previous statement, the US would be "okay until Labor Day." Today, he was more frantic. He begged Congress to get its act together and do something "sooner rather than later" to “remove the threat of default.” In its infinite wisdom, Congress had suspended the debt limit till May 18, rather than dealing with it. The debt, though still over the limit, declined in April and early May; tax extractions were fattened by asset bubbles. But since May 10, the debt has once again been rising.

US Consumers haven’t felt this good since July 2007, just before all heck broke loose. An "encouraging sign," Reuters sez. For short sellers? The preliminary results of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index jumped to 83.7 in May from 76.4 in April. Big part of the reason: households in the upper third of the income bracket felt flush from the ballooning stock market – the wealth effect. The Fed giveth.... They were able to brush off the payroll tax increase, which Wal-Mart shoppers, as we’ve seen, had a harder time brushing off. The Consumer Expectations index rose to 74.8 from 67.8. And the Current Economic Conditions index leaped to 97.5 from 89.9, the highest since October 2007, a month before the stock markets began to swoon. Impeccable timing, the hallmark of consumers.

Car sales in the EU crept up 1.7% in April, from a horrible April last year. The fact that the parade of ever worsening numbers has finally stopped, at least for a moment, was greeted with a huge sigh of relief. The details of the report aren’t that rosy: sales in the UK, now the second largest market after Germany, jumped 14.8%. Without the UK, sales for the rest of the EU actually dropped 0.46%. It wasn't exactly a smooth trend across the member states: Greece finally seems to have hit bottom, and sales increased 20.9%; in Denmark, they jumped 30.7% and in Finland 142.6%; but they crashed 26% in the Netherlands and 51.9% in Cyprus; they rose 3.8% in Germany but dropped 5.3% in France.

Deafening US media hype: Japan Core Machinery Orders jumped 14.2% in March, seasonally adjusted, from February. The eternal money-printing and fiscal-stimulus apologists dragged it out as proof that Abenomics is working massively. Alas, these are highly volatile big-ticket items, though “core” orders exclude container ships, nuclear reactors, etc., which are even more volatile. To iron out the volatility, the Cabinet Office also offers quarterly numbers. Soooo, core orders in the first quarter of 2013 were actually 4.8% lower than in the first quarter of 2012, when Noda was prime minister. Kampai!

The Japanese take care of their college grads: 93.9% of all those who graduated on March 31, the end of the academic year, had jobs by April 1, the beginning of the business year. This was the second year in a row that the percentage increased, so it’s NOT related to Abenomics, please! College recruitment, like so many things in Japan, is a highly structured process with the idea to get pretty much everyone squared away before the end of the academic year. But those who miss this entry into Japan Inc. have the greatest difficulty getting through the door later. The system is unforgiving punitive to those who don’t toe the line.

About that secret inflation in Argentina: famously, no one is allowed to accurately track or discuss inflation, but all the whisper numbers floating around peg it at over 20% annually. Now confirmation has come from official sources: wage negotiations between unions and the government of President Cristina Fernández Kirchner. Unions are her base. In fact, she personally met with the leaders of six unions that represent about 2 million workers, or 40% of all workers covered by wage negotiations, and made a deal, similar to the deals she’d made with Railway and Bus Drivers’ unions. The agreed-upon wage increases this year to keep the purchasing power of her voters intact? The closest estimate to official CPI that Argentina has? 24%!

 

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Last time French-made cars were sold is the US? 1980? Long time ago. But... French-made models of the Toyota Yaris are coming to the US, Canada, and Mexico, apparently to keep the plant in Onnaing, near Valenciennes, busy. Car sales in Europe have been catastrophic, and plant shutdowns and layoffs are hard to do, especially in France where even thinking about it causes a huge political ruckus. In 2012, 182,841 Yaris were sold in Europe, accounting for 22% of Toyota's total European sales - a highly successful model at the low end of the lineup. North America will get US versions, not EU versions. So no diesels.

Plunging price of gasoline shaves 0.4% from Consumer Price Index in April. Total energy prices dropped 4.3%, with gasoline down 8.1%. We’ll remember those days fondly because that cheap gasoline is now history; prices have been climbing in May! Food prices rose 0.2%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%. For the 12-month period, CPI is up 1.1% and core CPI 1.7%. The Fed might complain that this is below target; but it’s still inflation, and it still whittles down the value of your and my dollars, and everything denominated in them, and it’s still higher than the interest that banks pay on most deposits and CDs, though it’s better than 4.3%, as we had some months in 2011.

Another blow to US manufacturing: Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey – for manufacturing in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware – dropped into the negative, to -5.2 in May, from 1.3 in April (below zero = decline). The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing survey, reported yesterday (below), had also pointed at a contraction. Ominous: new orders dropped to -7.9, the worst since June last year, from -1 in April; the Workweek Index dropped to -12.4, and the Employment Index dropped to -8.7. Manufacturing is only a small part of the US economy, and this region is a small part of the US, so we’re not going to panic just yet...

US Housing Bubble confirmed: Heard an ad on the radio on how to get rich quick by flipping houses – and we’ll show you how. It conveniently offered an 800-number. Something or other was free.... but keep your credit card handy. These kinds of things usually appear late in a bubble.

Death penalty for financial fraud in China. A court in Wenzhou slapped a local, 39-year-old gal, former general manager of Wenzhou Xinfu Investment Consulting Co., with the maximum penalty available, death, for having illegally raised funds for investments starting in 2007. Everything worked fine until October 2011, when her scheme collapsed and she ended up defaulting on a 428 million yuan loan ($69.6 million). Leaves open the question if they’d slap the same penalty on TBTF bank CEOs every time their banks need a bailout. A bit draconian maybe, but something the US might want to consider as well, after not having prosecuted anyone responsible for the financial crisis and for the Fed’s bailouts that followed, though they did hound, as in China, small-scale crooks like Bernie Madoff.

Bad loans at Chinese commercial banks swelled by 6.8% in the first quarter, to 526.5 billion yuan ($85.6 billion), the sixth consecutive quarter of increases, raising the non-performing loan ratio to 0.96%. And NPLs are expected to rise further. One of the many elements in a boundless debt-fueled scheme that will eventually, like the micro-case above, unravel.

The Japanese Diet rubber-stamped the ¥92.6 trillion ($926 billion) budget for fiscal 2013, which started April 1. A breath-taking ¥43 trillion ($425 billion) will have to be borrowed to make ends meet - that's 46.4% of the total outlays! But no problem. Abenomics will get Japan out of its fiscal quagmire, one way or the other, by printing money. Government spending on public works – welfare spending for Japan Inc. – will rise to ¥5.3 trillion. In a show of rare fiscal discipline, welfare spending for the poor will be cut by ¥67 billion. Priorities of Abenomics are becoming clear.

Japanese GDP growth less than a year ago! The economy grew 0.9% in the first quarter 2013 from Q4 last year, or a 3.5% annual rate. Private demand was up some, with investment in housing being fairly strong, but corporate investment lackluster. Public demand – government spending and investment, including boondoggles – jumped, as promised by Abenomics. Exports rose, and so did imports, but not as much. All seasonally adjusted. Great? Give credit to Abenomics for that 0.9% growth in GDP? Because it was the fastest growth since... oops, well, since the first quarter of 2012, when the economy grew 1.3%. Abenomics can't even keep up with Noda's maligned era.

 

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Megabanks "are NOT too big to jail," claimed Attorney General Eric Holder today in a heroic about-face at a House Judiciary hearing, after he'd explained to the Senate Judiciary Committee in early March why exactly they were indeed too big to jail. The Justice Department has not prosecuted any megabanks despite their shenanigans leading up to the Financial Crisis and continuing to this day. A debacle I wrote about.... 'Regulatory Capture' Emasculated The Regulators Of Megabanks.

French purchasing power plunges 1.5% per capita, and 0.9% for all households together in 2012 (difference due to population growth), the worst performance since 1984. Combination of: disposable income creeping up only 0.9%, and prices rising 1.9%. Ah yes, the many benefits of "moderate" or even "below-target" inflation.

Tough day for US manufacturing: industrial production dropped 0.5% in April, after increasing in February and March; year-over-year, it's up only 1.9%. Within it, manufacturing fell 0.4%; fingers point at motor vehicles and parts, down 1.3%. Capacity utilization fell 0.5% to 77.8%, and is 2.4 percentage points below long-term average. Add to that: the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey for May dipped into the red (-1.43, from 3.05 in April). Employment sub-indices were mixed, with number of employees up slightly, but hours worked down sharply. Darkest cloud: new orders were negative. Executive optimism for the next six months declined, second month in a row. Not an exemplary picture of a growing economy.

"My question is, who is going to jail?" wondered House Speaker John Boehner about the IRS scandal. So why didn't he and other Republicans ask that question after the financial crisis, the largest scandal in the US ever?

Swooning energy prices, particularly gasoline, pushed down wholesale prices by 0.7% in April, seasonally adjusted. Food prices also dropped, a godsend for those of us who like to eat, with veggies and meat down the most. Without food and energy, which are highly volatile, the core Producer Price Index rose 0.1%. For the 12-month period, the unadjusted PPI is up a scant 0.6%. If they could just keep it that way!

Warning shot: Russian car sales plunged 8% in April. For the year, they are now 2% below the same period last year, a record year during which sales had jumped 11% from 2011. The good times appear to be over. Is the EU malaise heading east?

Europe stuck in recession: the Eurozone economy shrank 0.2% in the first quarter, from Q4, the sixth quarter of recession in a row, another glorious record. The 27-nation EU contracted 0.1%. Year over year, they’re down 1.0% and 0.7% respectively. Germany's economy inched up 0.1% in Q1, after having plunged 0.7% in Q4, thus barely avoiding the red stamp of recession. Both quarters combined, Germany is in the hole. The lousy performance in both quarters surprisingly surprised pundits. France is formally in a recession; its economy contracted 0.2% in Q1, third contraction in four quarters. Italy and Spain both shriveled 0.5%. Unperturbed, German stocks, while down a smidgen for the day so far, are still above their prior all-time intra-day high of July 2007. This will be seen as the greatest accomplishment of the central bank money-printing binge: separating (at least temporarily) stock markets from reality and allowing them to float in a dream world.

China's pile of foreign exchange grew by 294 billion yuan to 27.363 trillion yuan ($4.41 trillion) in April, according to the People's Bank of China, the fifth month in a row of increases. For the first four months of 2013, the monthly influx averaged 400 billion yuan, nine times the average in 2012. Earlier this month, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the top forex regulator, had threatened to crack down on foreign money flooding the country. China is where the hot money goes – on the bet that the yuan will continue to rise against the dollar which, through the arduous and heroic efforts of the Fed, will continue to lose value.

Nikkei jumps 2.29%, to 15,096, highest since December 28, 2007. If it keeps going like this, it will be above 40,000 soon. This thing has become a joke – even more so than the US stock markets. Japanese government bonds continue their descent, pushing yields up, with the 10-year JGB hitting 0.90% but then settled down at 0.85%. The yen skidded.

 

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Ex-leaders of consumer electronics: Sharp's huge loss is a sign of how Japanese powerhouses have lost the edge to Korean, US, and Chinese rivals. A doozy: ¥545 billion ($5.3 billion) in red ink, a record in its storied century-long history. A top exec reshuffle has been announced, but it won't fix the real issue that is bedeviling Sharp and other Japanese consumer electronics companies, once world leaders, now not even also-rans. Abenomics won't be able to cure that either. This isn't an issue of costs and exchange rates, but of innovation, products, and now increasingly brand (they squandered it).

China's white paper on human rights, helpfully issued in English so that foreigners like me can get their brains washed, starts out promisingly: "Since the arrival of the 21st century, the Chinese people have been making constant efforts in advancing human rights protection along the path of building socialism with Chinese characteristics under the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese government." Further into it, the paper clarifies priorities: "China has a population of over 1.3 billion. For such a populous country, it would be impossible to protect the people's rights and interests without first developing the economy to feed and clothe the people." Money before rights. But it also points out how the government has become much more transparent in many ways, which few people will dispute (text in full).

Inflation hits Japan: wholesale prices rose for 5th month in a row in April, by 0.3% from March, with the index at 101.4 (2010 prices = 100). Electricity, gas, water, lumber, and wood products jumped over 3%. Some of it was due to the weakening yen that made imported fuels and raw materials more expensive. How exactly higher prices would cure Japan’s economic ills remains a mystery, though it will give a stylish haircut to all those owning Japanese Government Bonds....

Japanese Government Bonds skid once again: yields rose, for the 10-year JGB to 0.85%, from 0.79% yesterday, from 0.69% on Friday, and from 0.315% on April 5, the day they went bonkers. While yields are still ultra-low, the rise has been relentless, not at all what the BOJ wants – and now there's also volatility, rare sight in the JGB market. Japanese institutions and individuals are buying foreign bonds with higher yields to diversify out of the yen that has been doomed by Abenomics to decline. If this turns into a massive dumping of yen, if the BOJ cannot keep it under control, the selloff might turn into a rout, and the BOJ and government-controlled institutions will be the only ones left buying. In sympathy, mortgage rates are creeping up, as are bank loans. The opposite of what Abenomics wants to accomplish. Free money is suddenly becoming more expensive. 

Click for Older Rumblings....

VIDEOS

Wolf Richter on Max Keiser's "On The Edge" 
"The Pauperization of America"

Wolf Richter on the Keiser Report
"Where the Money Goes to Die"

Clarke and Dawe: European Debt Crisis
Two favorite Australian Comedians

Clarke and Dawe: Quantitative Easing
Big industrial-strength printers, all facing the window

The Fastest Drive Ever Through San Francisco
Don't try to do this yourself
 

humanERROR - by "Frying Dutchman"
Powerful, lyrical appeal to the Japanese. Slams nuke industry, MSM, bureaucrats, and politicians.

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Thursday
Dec202012

Michigan's Right-To-Work Law Already Attracts Union Jobs

Contributed by Chriss Street. Specialist in corporate reorganizations and turnarounds, former Chairman of two NYSE listed companies. His latest book, The Third Way, describes how to achieve management excellence and financial reward by moving organizations from Conflict and Confrontation to Leadership and Cooperation. He lives in Newport Beach, CA.

Last week, Michigan Governor Rick Snyder signed State Bill (HB 4929) to approve Michigan’s first right-to-work laws for both private and public sector workers that make it illegal to require workers to either join a union or pay union dues without their permission. The law was heralded by conservatives as protecting workers’ right of free association, but was scorned by liberals as destroying jobs at good wages.  But as reward for Michigan’s new pro-jobs environment, General Motors announced they will bring back production of the iconic Chevrolet Camaro to the Michigan from Canada

In his first public appearance after signing the historic legislation, Michigan Governor Snyder was heckled as the keynote speaker for Michigan State University's commencement ceremonies last Saturday as he encouraged students: "We want Michigan to be attractive to you so you stay here".  Inundated by news organizations that had been hoping for some wild protests and counter-demonstrations, Snyder tried to avoid controversy by stating: “I've talked enough about public policy this week...my preference is always to talk to the graduates", even as he did recognize: “there are some people here that don't agree with me today.”

Speaking about his own post-college experiences, Snyder said he chose an accounting job in Detroit over a higher-paying offer in Houston, because the company helped foster his career and allowed him to stay closer to his family and friends.  Union supporters and protesters sneered at Snyder’s noble words as hypocritical rhetoric: "We are here to show our appreciation for the MSU students," said Bill Reed, president of UAW Local 602 in Lansing.  "The trouble is, the governor has not shown that same appreciation. This legislation harms these students' future."

The Camaro decision represents at least 1,000 union jobs and comes as a big win for Michigan's hard-hit auto sector over foreign competition.  It seems that after the GM bankruptcy, higher productivity at plants in the U.S. are reducing GM’s capital investment costs and improving profitability.  Kristin Dziczek, Director of Labor and Industry at the Center for Automotive Research, said labor costs for new hires in Michigan are now lower than the wage costs for veteran unionized peers in Canada, since; "There's a considerable number of entry-level people and a lot of the older workers have already retired or taken retirement incentives."  Dziczek also added that that the relatively strong Canadian currency, known as the loonie, is dragging down Canadian manufacturing sector versus American competition.

In an interesting twist of fate, the Michigan job gains will come from GMs Ontario plant that was the scene of one of the most vicious strikes in labor history.  From April 8-23 1937, more than 4000 workers struck for better wages, working conditions, seniority system and recognition of their new United Automobile Workers union.  The UAW was to be an affiliate of the recently created Congress of Industrial Organization that was organizing industrial workers throughout the U.S.  Ontario Premier Mitchell Hepburn vigorously supported GM management’s efforts to try and keep the CIO out of Ontario.   To break the strike, Hepburn even created his own police force, known as "Hepburn's Hussars" and "Sons-of-Mitches."

Fellow unionists, neighbors and communist activists funded the GM Canada striking workers for 2 weeks.  Eventually, GM capitulated over fears of losing markets to its competitors.  In the April 23 agreement GM accepted many of the union's demands, without recognizing the union.  To gain recognition, the union leadership publicly repudiated the CIO connection.  But everyone knew it was a great CIO victory and the first major one in Canada.  The strike marked the birth of industrial unionism in Canada.

Michigan was hammered with a “D” rating in the 2009 Index of Worker Freedom.  But the success in attracting the Camaro back after passing right-to-work legislation is motivating the Republican controlled Legislature to adopt more pro-business legislation:  

  • HB 5024 would increase penalties for violation of Michigan’s mass picketing statute and allow employers to seek legal means to stop mass picketing;
  • HB 5023 would increase penalties for illegal public sector strikes;
  • HB 5026 would allow employers to more easily hire new workers during labor union disputes.

Rick Snyder had served as the Chairman of the Board of Irvine, California computer maker Gateway, Inc. and Ann Arbor, Michigan based Ardesta Venture Capital, before he ran for Governor in 2010 on the motto: “I'm pro worker”.  With state unemployment falling from 9.4% to 8.9% since August and GM jobs on the way, Snyder is proving that passing right-to-work laws is great for workers.  Cross Posted from Chriss Street's blog.

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Reader Comments (3)

The Trades Unionists should have organised solidarity with the Canadian workers and globalised their operation. If the bosses can shift production to Canada or China why should the workers not shift resistance globally?
Do you think that we stopped sending children down coal mines because the coal owners suddenly became better people? Or because of labour organisation?
The coal owners were vehement in claiming that coal would become prohibitively expensive if they dispensed with child labour.
Slave owners vehemently claimed that the economy would collapse without slave labour.
To celebrate the return of production to Michigan of a machine that contributes to the degradation of the planet for future generations in circumstances that drive down living standards in the present is neanderthal economics. The worst of all worlds.
In the past 30 years wages in America have reduced sharply at the same time as debt has gone through the roof, growth has contracted and GDP has shrunk. Trades Union membership has declined in this period.
A criminal cartel of Financial racketeers is destroying the world's economy and we are encouraged to have concern for the negative impact of largely non existent labour organisations. Really?
It is organised Capital that is destroying wealth. Organised Labour is a benign, civilising and democratising force.
December 21, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRoger Yates
Employees seeking greener pastures should simply save their own capital, and invest it themselves, in their own business endeavors. Unfortunately, the government-union cartel continuously inflates their currency, granting money to their buddies, while decreasing incentive to save.

Over the last 30 years, the wealth generated during prior eras has been siphoned off by government and its favored fascist partners. The impoverishment of a nation does not come about because of declining trade union membership. It comes about because wealth is stolen... legally... and squandered by the picked winners. Like GM, for instance.

I encourage investors to locate their businesses in regions of the world which are more hospitable to investment. If someone in Africa or Asia has no job now, and you can offer a steady wage, it will improve their circumstances. But beware, the communists will try to justify theft of your capital in the name of "fairness," which they define, of course.

An agreement between employee and employer is not suddenly voluntary when the employees themselves become a cartel. Employees do not need violent organizations to represent them; we are perfectly capable of representing ourselves. What we do need is a level playing field, where the currency is not controlled by favored organizations, including trade unions and banksters, all of whom are sleeping with one another and their governments, while inflation is harnessed to pillage and plunder the unfortunate masses.
December 23, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRobert Jones
No, the transfer (not loss) of wealth has been caused by the bosses forcing down labour costs in the name of Competition and exporting jobs to places like China. The wealth that then went into the hands of the Financial/Speculation Industry was used to pump up bubbles that have further hollowed out America's economy. The money being printed at present to keep your debt fueled consumer economy afloat in some form, is immediately flowing out to China, which makes the consumer goods being purchased with printed money which is then used to purchase your Bonds. You live on "Entitlements" provided by the Chinese State for so long as it pleases them to keep you afloat. Meanwhile you spend half your GDP on weaponry in a world where peasant armies (Vietnam/Afghanistan) can give you a bloody nose with small arms and explosives made from industrial chemicals bought in the corner shop. Meanwhile you have turned your educational establishments into businesses that educate the Chinese and Indian competition who pay for it up front while you pump up a student loans bubble that will never be paid because people like you @Robert Jones are exporting jobs. Since one man's debt is another man's asset this colossal student loan debt is tanking the second man's investment. Meanwhile (again) the growing Economic movers and shakers and American Educated entrepreneurs in India and China who are aware that doing business with folk who can't pay their debts is unwise, are also aware that they have huge rising populations that will buy their goods internally and not pay for them with worthless bits of paper called Dollars. At which point they will desert "globalisation" and put up trade barriers. At this stage, if you have any sense left, you will disarm and put the productive power released thereby into creating worker cooperatives that produce your own wealth and a decent, civilised welfare system with free education for your own citizens, and sit back and watch the Chinese and Indians wreck their societies as you are now wrecking yours. Running the world in your "interests" is only in the interest of an Elite that has no patriotism whatever. It pays no tax and is a parasitic entity which is the true "State" in modern America. The Government is irrelevant.The multinationals and the Banks are the State. The worker who has lost his job (you sent it to Africa to reward rent seekers on printed money) and is living in a tent behind the freeway will never save enough money to invest in anything. But he is committed to your country. Let him organise and he will evolve a society worth living in. Not a stateist soviet gulag but a sane collective based in devolved power to the population. For this people need to come together. The notion that a mob of atomised individuals each "representing himself" and serving his own "self interest" can create a functioning society is ridiculous. It is an Ideology, no less than belief in the perfection of "The Party" and "The Great Leader" is an Ideology. The little guy can organise his own affairs....Collectively.
December 27, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRoger Yates

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